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Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Alan S. Blinder

    (Princeton University)

  • Mark W. Watson

    (Princeton University)

Abstract
The U.S. economy has grown faster—and scored higher on many other macroeconomic metrics-- hen the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican. For many measures, including real GDP growth (on which we concentrate), the performance gap is both large and statistically significant, despite the fact that postwar history includes only 16 complete presidential terms. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters (such as differential trends or mean reversion), nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior TFP performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. Many other potential explanations are examined but fail to explain the partisan growth gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2014. "Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration," Working Papers 241, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:241
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    United States;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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