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Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011

Author

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  • Ratti, Ronald A.
  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.
Abstract
Movement in China’s money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last twenty years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) real M2 and to China’s real M2 are both large over 1996:1-2011:12. The cumulative impact of real G3 M2 shocks on real oil prices is small and statistically insignificant. In contrast, the cumulative impact of China’s real M2 on the real price of crude oil is large and statistically significant. Following a sharp fall in real oil price in the last half of 2008, the cumulative impact of China’s real M2 on the real price of crude oil is particularly substantial in the recovery of oil price during 2009 from a low of $41.68 for January 2009. The analysis sheds light on the causes of movement in oil prices over the last twenty five years and in assessing the relative importance of China in the upsurge of the real price of crude oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," MPRA Paper 48900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48900
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    3. Biresselioglu, Mehmet Efe & Yelkenci, Tezer, 2016. "Scrutinizing the causality relationships between prices, production and consumption of fossil fuels: A panel data approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 44-53.
    4. Juan Ignacio Guzmán & Enrique Silva, 2018. "Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, October.
    5. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "The influences of international output shocks from the US and China on ASEAN economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 59-71.
    6. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    7. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    8. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
    9. Zheng, Xinwei & Su, Dan, 2017. "Impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock market liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 136-174.
    10. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "Chinese monetary expansion and the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 48050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    12. Merve Karacaer-Ulusoy & Ayhan Kapusuzoglu, 2017. "The Dynamics of Financial and Macroeconomic Determinants in Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets: Evidence from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Gulf Cooperation Council/Organization," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 167-187.
    13. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Liquidity expansion in China and the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 59338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Peng, Tianduo & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: An integrated modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    15. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    16. Li, Sisi & Khan, Sufyan Ullah & Yao, Yao & Chen, George S. & Zhang, Lin & Salim, Ruhul & Huo, Jiaying, 2022. "Estimating the long-run crude oil demand function of China: Some new evidence and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    17. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Jiqiang & Chen, Sanpan, 2023. "Information effects of monetary policy announcements on oil price," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    18. Su, Hui & Zhou, Na & Wu, Qiaosheng & Bi, Zhiwei & Wang, Yuli, 2023. "Investigating price fluctuations in copper futures: Based on EEMD and Markov-switching VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Chonghao, 2021. "Impacts of coal prices on the performance of Chinese financial institutions: Does electricity consumption matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 884-896.
    21. Salim, Ruhul & Yao, Yao & Chen, George S., 2017. "Does human capital matter for energy consumption in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 49-59.
    22. Husaini Said & Evangelos Giouvris, 2019. "Oil, the Baltic Dry index, market (il)liquidity and business cycles: evidence from net oil-exporting/oil-importing countries," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(4), pages 349-416, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price; China’s Global Influence; Oil Price and Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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