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An empirical model for the Turkish trade balance: new evidence from ARDL bounds testing analyses

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  • Korap, Levent
Abstract
In this paper, the determinants of the Turkish trade balance are tried to be analyzed in an empirical modelling approach. For this purpose, the contemporaneous ARDL-based bounds testing has been used to examine the existence of a long run co-integration relationship between the variables of our interest. The estimation results indicate that real exchange rate depreciations improves the trade balance in a strong and significant way, that domestic real income affects the trade balance negatively, and that trade balance is strongly improved due to an increase in foreign real income. No significant effect of crude oil prices can be observed on trade balance. The error correction modeling gives results in line with the long run findings of the co-integration analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Korap, Levent, 2011. "An empirical model for the Turkish trade balance: new evidence from ARDL bounds testing analyses," MPRA Paper 32550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32550
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    Cited by:

    1. Linda Akoto & Daniel Sakyi, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance in Post-liberalization Ghana," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(3), pages 177-205, August.
    2. Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Ayesha Wajid & Rukhsana Kalim, 2017. "Factors affecting trade deficit in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(2), pages 283-304, August.
    3. Suleyman ACIKALIN & Erginbay UGURLU, 2014. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Trade Balance of Turkey," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 1(1), pages 6-13, December.
    4. Yilmaz BAYAR & Huseyin KARAMELIKLI, 2015. "Impact Of Oil And Natural Gas Prices On The Turkish Foreign Trade Balance: Unit Root And Cointegration Tests With Structural Breaks," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 10(3), pages 91-104, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Balance; ARDL Bounds Testing Approach; Turkish Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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