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Modeling the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal production: evidence from Indian agricultural sector

Author

Listed:
  • Abbas Ali, Chandio
  • Yuansheg, Jiang
  • Asad, Amin
  • Waqar, Akram
  • Ilhan, Ozturk
  • Avik, Sinha
  • Fayyaz, Ahmad
Abstract
The underpinned study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on Indian agriculture, cereal production, and yield using the country-level time series data of 1965–2015. With the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the long-term equilibrium association among the variables has been explored. The results reveal that climatic factors like CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affect agricultural output, while rainfall positively affects it. Likewise, non-climatic factors, including energy used, financial development, and labor force, affect agricultural production positively in the long run. The estimated long-run results further demonstrate that CO2 emissions and rainfall positively affect both cereal production and yield, while temperature adversely affects. The results exhibit that the cereal cropped area, energy used, financial development, and labor force significantly and positively impact the long-run cereal production and yield. Finally, pairwise granger causality test confirmed that both climatic and non-climatic factors are significantly influencing agriculture and cereal production in India. Based on these results, policymakers and governmental institutions should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the adverse climate change effects on agriculture and its production of cereals.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas Ali, Chandio & Yuansheg, Jiang & Asad, Amin & Waqar, Akram & Ilhan, Ozturk & Avik, Sinha & Fayyaz, Ahmad, 2021. "Modeling the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal production: evidence from Indian agricultural sector," MPRA Paper 110065, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ashraf, Shah Nawaz & Singh, Ajay K, 2022. "Implications of appropriate technology and farm inputs in the agricultural sector of Gujarat: empirical analysis based on primary data," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 35(2), December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural output; Climate change; Cereal production; ARDL method; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

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