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In Search of a Warning Strategy Against Exchange-rate Attacks: Forecasting Tactics Using Artificial Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.
  • Georgopoulos, E. F.
  • Likothanassis, S. D.
Abstract
The contribution that this paper aspires to make is the prediction of an oncoming attack against the domestic currency, something that is expected to increase the possibilities of successful hedging by the authorities. The analysis has focused on the Greek Drachma,which has suffered a series of attacks during the past few years, thus offering a variety of such "shock" incidents accompanied by frequent interventions by the authorities. The prediction exercised here is performed in a discrete dynamics environment, based on the daily fluctuations of the interbank overnight interest rate, using artificial neural networks enhanced by genetic algorithms. The results obtained on the basis of the forecasting performance have been considered most encouraging, in providing a successful prediction of an oncoming attack against the domestic currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A. & Georgopoulos, E. F. & Likothanassis, S. D., 2000. "In Search of a Warning Strategy Against Exchange-rate Attacks: Forecasting Tactics Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 18197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18197
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Benjamin J. C. & Mo, Soowon, 1995. "Cointegration and the long-run forecast of exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 353-359, June.
    2. Andreou, A. & Georgakopoulos, E. & Likothanassis, S. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "Testing Currency Predictability Using An Evolutionary Neural Network Model," MPRA Paper 51483, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 1998.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shocks; Interest-rate; Forecasting; Neural-networks; Genetic algorithms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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