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Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Sînâ T. AteÅŸ

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Felipe E. Saffie

    (Department of Economics, University of Maryland)

Abstract
We combine the real business cycle small open economy framework with the endogenous growth literature to study the productivity cost of a sudden stop. In this economy, productivity growth is determined by successful implementation of business ideas, yet the quality of ideas is heterogeneous and good ideas are scarce. A representative financial intermediary screens and selects the most promising ideas, which gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirms the main mechanism of the model, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer, but better. A calibrated version of the economy shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity and selection, as otherwise the permanent loss of output generated by the forgone entrants doubles, which increases the welfare cost by 30%.

Suggested Citation

  • Sînâ T. AteÅŸ & Felipe E. Saffie, 2014. "Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-043, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:14-043
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Selection; Sudden Stop; Endogenous Growth; Firm Entry; Firm Heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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