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From CIP-Deviations to a Market for Risk Premia: A Dynamic Investigation of Cross-Currency Basis Swaps

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Chatziantoniou

    (Portsmouth Business School)

  • David Gabauer

    (Webster Vienna Private University, Johannes Kepler University)

  • Alexis Stenfors

    (Portsmouth Business School)

Abstract
The persistent deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) since 2007 indicate that specific frictions continue to exist, which prevent them from being arbitraged away. In this study, we study the cross-currency basis swap market and put forward the argument that the risk premium expressed via the CIP-deviation constitutes a unique market that determines its own equilibrium price after receiving feedback from various sources, including contagion within the market itself. We investigate contagion using a TVP-VAR framework of analysis that measures the extent of connectedness across the bases on all G10 currencies against the US dollar between 2007 and 2018. Our main findings indicate that connectedness is event-dependent. Furthermore, we provide evidence that net-transmitting bases are typically associated with safe haven currencies (e.g. CHF) and banking sectors with significant overseas operations (e.g. EUR and JPY). On a pairwise level, results confirm that during tranquil times in international financial markets, connectedness subdues and even reaches negligible levels - particularly for stable banking systems (e.g. CAD) or without significant US dollar funding gaps (e.g. AUD).

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Alexis Stenfors, 2019. "From CIP-Deviations to a Market for Risk Premia: A Dynamic Investigation of Cross-Currency Basis Swaps," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-05, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2019-05
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    3. Alexis Stenfors & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2022. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy Focal Points," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 348-355, April.
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    5. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2023. "Deviations from covered interest parity in the emerging markets after the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Alexis Stenfors & Lilian Muchimba, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanism of Stress in the International Banking System," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2023-03, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    7. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Aarzoo Sharma & Dorika Jeremiah Mwamtambulo, 2022. "Extreme Connectedness between Green Bonds, Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds and Other Asset Classes: Insights for Portfolio Investors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, October.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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    10. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    12. Lilian Muchimba, 2022. "Connectedness of money market instruments: A time-varying vector autoregression approach," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2022-07, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    13. Bazán, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "CIP deviations: The role of U.S. banks’ liquidity and regulations," MPRA Paper 118600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    16. David-Pur, Lior & Galil, Koresh & Rosenboim, Mosi & Shapir, Offer Moshe, 2023. "Cross-currency basis swap spreads and corporate dollar funding," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Stenfors, Alexis & Dilshani, Kaveesha & Guo, Andy & Mere, Peter, 2024. "Detecting the risk of cross-product manipulation in the EUREX fixed income futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Stenfors, Alexis & Doraghi, Mehrdaad & Soviany, Cristina & Susai, Masayuki & Vakili, Kaveh, 2023. "Cross-market spoofing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CIP-Deviations; Cross-Currency Basis Swaps; Dynamic Connectedness; Spillover Analysis; TVP-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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