[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/onb/oenbwp/139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    (National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    (Department of Economics, University of Vienna, Bruennerstrasse 72, A-1210 Vienna (Austria))

Abstract
We use a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to extract world, regional and country factors of real interest rate series for 22 OECD economies. We find that the world factor plays a privileged role in explaining the variance of real rates for most countries in the sample, and accounts for the steady decrease in interest rates in the last decades. Moreover, the relative contribution of the world factor is rising over time. We also find relevant differences between the group of countries that follow fixed exchange rate strategies and those with flexible regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2008. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 139, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:31341ece-84b6-41f7-b3d2-12de35544acd/wp139_tcm16-81420.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 1994. "Real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 107-124, February.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
    4. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hans Christiansen & Charles Pigott, 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rates in Globalised Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 175, OECD Publishing.
    6. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    7. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 721-750, June.
    8. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Strauch, Rolf & Paesani, Paolo & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 656, European Central Bank.
    10. Adrian Orr & Malcolm Edey & Michael Kennedy, 1995. "The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
    11. Kenneth W. Clements & H.Y Izan & E Antony Selvanathan, 2005. "Stochastic Index Numbers: A Review," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-08, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    13. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    14. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
    15. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    16. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
    17. Ford, Robert & Laxton, Douglas, 1999. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, Summer.
    18. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 411, European Central Bank.
    19. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    20. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    21. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Gagnon, Joseph E & Unferth, Mark D, 1995. "Is there a world real interest rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 845-855, December.
    23. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    24. Owen F. Humpage, 2005. "Have international developments lowered the neutral rate?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
    25. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
    26. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
    27. Mancuso, Anthony J. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 2003. "Nonlinear aspects of capital market integration and real interest rate equalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 283-303.
    28. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2006. "Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Winter), pages 3-17.
    29. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    30. Owen, Robert F, 1991. "The Challenges of German Unification for EC Policymaking and Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 171-175, May.
    31. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    32. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
      by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 17:59:58

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    2. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    3. Natalie Labuschagne & Polly Vowles, 2010. "Why are Real Interest Rates in New Zealand so High? Evidence and Drivers," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.
    5. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    6. Groth, Charlotta & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 30, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:139:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    3. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 84.1-84.16.
    6. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    11. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Working Papers hal-01065566, HAL.
    12. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    13. Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Global and country-specific factors in real effective exchange rates," MPRA Paper 64217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Commonality and Heterogeneity in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 70078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Caravaggio, Nicola & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2022. "The Italian nominal interest rate conundrum: A problem of growth or public finance?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 313-326.
    16. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    18. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    19. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks," Working Papers CREAP2006-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2006.
    20. Salah A. Nusair, 2006. "Real Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Industrialized Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 425-457, November.
    21. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
    23. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 16, pages 861-933, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rates; natural rate of interest; Bayesian dynamic factor models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Markus Knell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.