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The drivers of regional growth in Russia: A baseline model with applications

Author

Listed:
  • Hansjörg Blöchliger

    (OECD)

  • Olivier Durand-Lasserve

    (OECD)

Abstract
Russia is a federation of more than 80 regions spanning across a huge territory. Natural resource endowment, inherited industrial specialization, remoteness and climate conditions contribute to large regional disparities. This paper presents an empirical framework model for assessing determinants of regional growth in Russia between 2004 and 2015 with an extension to include sub-national fiscal policies. Baseline results show convergence rates of regional GDP per capita in line with the 2% “iron law of convergence” between countries. Capital investment, and public investment in particular, is a stronger driver of regional growth than in most OECD countries. Natural-resource rich regions are growing faster, and oil price shocks have little economic impact in these regions, pointing at Russia’s centralized tax and transfer system. Subnational current government expenditure is associated with lower growth and slower regional convergence, suggesting low sub-national spending efficiency. There is also weak evidence that sub-national investment yields higher returns than federal government investment. Transfers have mixed effects depending on their nature. Budget equalization grants tend to slow regional growth as they reduce incentives to improve spending efficiency. On the other hand earmarked matching grants tend to spur growth and convergence as they direct resources towards more productive spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansjörg Blöchliger & Olivier Durand-Lasserve, 2018. "The drivers of regional growth in Russia: A baseline model with applications," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1523, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1523-en
    DOI: 10.1787/9279f6c3-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. K. P. Gluschenko, 2023. "Regional Inequality in Russia: Anatomy of Convergence," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. B. M. Mukhamediyev & L. S. Spankulova, 2022. "Mutual Influence of Innovation and Human Capital on Regional Growth in Neighboring Countries: The Case of Russia and Kazakhstan," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 350-364, September.
    3. A. N. Bufetova, 2022. "The Heterogeneity of the Spatial Development of Asian Russia: What the Indicators of Interregional Inequality Are Silent About," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 459-468, December.
    4. Lehmann, Hartmut & Oshchepkov, Aleksey & Silvagni, Maria Giulia, 2020. "Regional Convergence in Russia: Estimating a Neoclassical Growth Model," IZA Discussion Papers 13039, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Igor Yu. Arlashkin, 2020. "Intergovernmental Fiscal Instruments for Stimulating Regional Economic Growth in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 54-68, December.
    6. Pavel V. POPOV & Marina V. LEDENEVA & Victoria V. BATMANOVA, 2021. "Influence Of Logistics Infrastructure Of Russian Federal Districts On Their Social And Economic Indicators," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(2), pages 29-40.
    7. E. Taymaz, 2022. "Regional Convergence or Polarization: The Case of the Russian Federation," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 469-482, December.
    8. Bloechliger, H. & Wildnerova, L., 2020. "Productivity of the Russian firms: Seven stylized facts," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 217-227.
    9. E. V. Antonov, 2020. "Territorial Concentration of the Economy and Population in European Union Countries and Russia and the Role of Global Cities," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 360-372, July.
    10. Venera Timiryanova & Dina Krasnoselskaya & Natalia Kuzminykh, 2022. "Applying the Multilevel Approach in Estimation of Income Population Differences," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, December.
    11. Oshchepkov, Aleksey & Lehmann, Hartmut & Silvagni, Maria Giulia, 2023. "Regional convergence in Russia: Estimating an augmented Solow model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    empirical growth model; fiscal federalism; public investment; Regional convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General

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