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On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza
Abstract
Variance decompositions of the Mexico-United States real exchange rate are examined using monthly data on consumer prices and the nominal exchange rate for the period January, 1969 to February, 2000. The results show that the robust result found in industrial-country data that most of the variation of the real exchange rate is due to fluctuations in prices of tradable goods and nominal exchange rates holds only in periods in which Mexico was not under a regime of exchange-rate management. In periods in the sample in which Mexico had a managed exchange-rate regime, the variability of prices of non-tradable goods relative to tradable goods accounts for up to 70 percent of the variability of the peso-dollar real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 7768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
    2. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2009. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 235-249, July.
    3. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
    5. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hernandez Vega Marco A., 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Variations, Nontraded Goods and Disaggregated CPI Data," Working Papers 2012-05, Banco de México.
    8. Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2010. "The Nontradable Goods' Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 227-249.
    9. Yothin Jinjarak & Kanda Naknoi, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Wage Stickiness and Tradability," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1255, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    10. Lein‐Lein Chen & Seungmook Choi & John Devereux, 2015. "Explaining price level differences: New evidence on the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 81-99, July.
    11. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Kanda Naknoi, 2017. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, wage stickiness and tradability," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 94-110, February.
    13. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    14. Chen, Lein-Lein & Choi, Seungmook & Devereux, John, 2015. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes at long time horizons," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 264-277.
    15. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0306, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    16. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.
    17. Hernández Manuel A., 2015. "Endogenous Trade, Nontraded Goods and Real Exchange Rate Variations," Working Papers 2015-07, Banco de México.
    18. Kenza Benhima, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Liability Dollarization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 501-529, July.
    19. Azcona Nestor, 2017. "Exchange rate policy and the role of non-traded goods prices in real exchange rate fluctuations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-18, June.
    20. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.
    21. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2010. "Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    22. Gilberto E. Arce & Edgar Robles C., 2004. "The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Costa Rica," Research Department Publications 3183, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    23. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "Economic Management in a Volatile Environment: Monetary and Financial Issues by Ramkishen S. Rajan and Sasidaran Gopalan Palgrave Macmillan , London , 2015 Pp. xx+283. ISBN 9 78 137 37151-5," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(2), pages 103-106, November.
    24. John H. Rogers & Hayden P. Smith, 2001. "Border effects within the NAFTA countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 698, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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