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Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation

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  • Charles I. Plosser
Abstract
This paper focuses on the role of money in economic fluctuations. While money may play an important role in market economies, its role as an important impulse to business cycles remains a highly controversial hypothesis. For years economists have attempted to construct monetary theories of the business cycle with only limited empirical success. Alternatively, recent real theories of the cycle have taken the view that to a first approximation independent variations in the nominal quantity of outside money are neutral. This paper finds that the empirical evidence for a monetary theory of the cycle is weak. Not only do variations in nominal money explain very little of subsequent movements in real activity, but what explanatory power exists arises from variations in endogenous components of money.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles I. Plosser, 1990. "Money and Business Cycles: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 3221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3221
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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 1993. "Monetary Policy and the Real Economy in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 121-159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joseph H. Haslag & Scott E. Hein, 1993. "Constructing an alternative measure of changes in reserve requirement ratios," Working Papers 9306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Karin Jürgensen & Francisco Rosende, "undated". "Hayek y el Ciclo Económico: Una Revisión a la Luz de la Macroeconomía Moderna," Documentos de Trabajo 154, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    4. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark, 1995. "The Effect of Changes in Reserve Requirements on Investment and GNP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 511-526, May.
    5. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Joseph H. Haslag & Scott E. Hein, 1995. "Measuring the policy effects of changes in reserve requirement ratios," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 2-15.
    7. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "The multiplier approach to the money supply process: a precautionary note," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-64.
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Some univariate time series properties of output," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 49, pages 7-46, Julio Dic.
    9. Ramey, Valerie A., 1992. "The source of fluctuations in money : Evidence from trade credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 171-193, November.
    10. Gauger, Jean, 1998. "Economic Impacts on the Money Supply Process," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 553-577, July.
    11. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "An Aggregate Demand–Aggregate Supply Analysis of Japanese Monetary Policy, 1973–1990," NBER Chapters, in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 160-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Scheide, Joachim, 1991. "On the causality between output, money and the terms of trade in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 475, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Haslag, Joseph H. & Hein, Scott E., 1995. "Does it matter how monetary policy is implemented?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 359-386, April.
    14. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "The Own-Price of Money and a New Channel of Monetary Transmission," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 544, Boston College Department of Economics.
    15. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1990. "Deflating the case for zero inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Sum), pages 2-11.

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