[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20935.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Premature Deindustrialization

Author

Listed:
  • Dani Rodrik
Abstract
I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades, that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the origin. This means countries are running out of industrialization opportunities sooner and at much lower levels of income compared to the experience of early industrializers. Asian countries and manufactures exporters have been largely insulated from those trends, while Latin American countries have been especially hard hit. Advanced economies have lost considerable employment (especially of the low-skill type), but they have done surprisingly well in terms of manufacturing output shares at constant prices. While these trends are not very recent, the evidence suggests both globalization and labor-saving technological progress in manufacturing have been behind these developments. Premature deindustrialization has potentially significant economic and political ramifications, including lower economic growth and democratic failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Rodrik, 2015. "Premature Deindustrialization," NBER Working Papers 20935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20935
    Note: DEV EFG ITI PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20935.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sharun W Mukand & Dani Rodrik, 2020. "The Political Economy of Liberal Democracy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(627), pages 765-792.
    2. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edwards, 2013. "US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience," Policy Briefs PB13-27, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    4. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2009. "Can Traditional Theories of Structural Change Fit The Data?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 469-477, 04-05.
    5. Gaaitzen de Vries & Marcel Timmer & Klaas de Vries, 2015. "Structural Transformation in Africa: Static Gains, Dynamic Losses," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 674-688, June.
    6. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    7. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
    8. Jo Thori Lind & Halvor Mehlum, 2010. "With or Without U? The Appropriate Test for a U‐Shaped Relationship," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 109-118, February.
    9. Amrit Amirapu & Arvind Subramanian, 2015. "Manufacturing or Services? An Indian Illustration of a Development Dilemma," Working Papers id:7521, eSocialSciences.
    10. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 2014. "The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(3), pages 5-39.
    12. Raphaël Franck & Oded Galor, 2015. "Is Industrialization Conducive to Long-Run Prosperity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5354, CESifo.
    13. Robert Stehrer & Los, Bart & Dietzenbacher, H.W.A. & Timmer, Marcel & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "The World Input-Output Database: Content, Concepts and Applications," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-144, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    14. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, January.
    15. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
    16. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    17. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Francesca Barbiero & Michael Blanga-Gubbay & Valeria Cipollone & Koen De Backer & Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis & André Sapir & Reinhilde Veugelers & Erkki Vihriälä & Guntram B. Wolff & Ge, . "Manufacturing Europe’s future," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 795.
    19. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    20. Sukti Dasgupta & Ajit Singh, 2006. "Manufacturing, Services and Premature Deindustrialization in Developing Countries: A Kaldorian Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-49, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    22. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-136 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Alwyn Young, 2013. "Inequality, the Urban-Rural Gap, and Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1727-1785.
    24. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2009. "Structural Change in an Interdependent World: A Global View of Manufacturing Decline," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 478-486, 04-05.
    25. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Coordination failures and government policy: A model with applications to East Asia and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 1-22, February.
    27. Venables, Anthony J., 1996. "Trade policy, cumulative causation, and industrial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 179-197, April.
    28. Amrit Amirapu and Arvind Subramanian, 2015. "Manufacturing or Services? An Indian Illustration of a Development Dilemma - Working Paper 409," Working Papers 409, Center for Global Development.
    29. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diao, Xinshen & McMillan, Margaret, 2018. "Toward an Understanding of Economic Growth in Africa: A Reinterpretation of the Lewis Model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 511-522.
    2. James Bessen, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: The Role of Demand," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 291-307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mensah, Emmanuel B., 2020. "Is sub-Saharan Africa deindustrializing?," MERIT Working Papers 2020-045, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    5. Lifeng Zhang, 2015. "A Multi-sector Model of Public Expenditure and Growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 73-93, May.
    6. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    7. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2019. "Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand‐Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 497-528, March.
    8. Martin Labaj & Stracova Erika, 2019. "Drivers of Deindustrialisation: Sub-system Analysis of Internationally Fragmented Production Structures," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 018, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    9. van Neuss, Leif, 2018. "Globalization and deindustrialization in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 49-63.
    10. Boire, Sidiki & Nell, Kevin S., 2021. "The enclave hypothesis and Dutch disease effect: A critical appraisal of Mali's gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Globalization and Structural Change in the United States: A Quantitative Assessment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    13. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2018. "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 761-796.
    14. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    15. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    16. Betty ASSE & Dalila CHENAF-NICET, 2021. "Note on the role of domestic and external demand on the process of premature deindustrialization," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 54, pages 145-160.
    17. Matthess, Marcel & Kunkel, Stefanie, 2020. "Structural change and digitalization in developing countries: Conceptually linking the two transformations," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Ghulam Yahya Khan & Salik Mehboob & Lydia Bares Lopez, 2018. "Deindustrialization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 462-475, December.
    19. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Felice, Giulia, 2022. "Trade and structural change: An empirical investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-79.
    20. Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2014. "Capital Accumulation and Structural Change in a Small Open Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 634-656, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.