[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19963.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie E. Curcuru
  • Charles P. Thomas
  • Francis E. Warnock
  • Jon Wongswan
Abstract
Portfolio rebalancing is a key driver of the Uncovered Equity Parity (UEP) condition. According to UEP, when foreign equity holdings outperform domestic holdings, domestic investors are exposed to higher exchange rate exposure and hence repatriate some of the foreign equity to decrease their exchange rate risk. By doing so, foreign currency is sold, leading to foreign currency depreciation. We examine the relationship between U.S. investors' portfolio reallocations and returns and find some evidence consistent with UEP: Portfolio shifts are related to past returns in the underlying equity markets. But we argue that a motive other than reducing currency risk exposure is likely behind this rebalancing. In particular, U.S. investors may be exploiting mean reversion in underlying equity markets, rebalancing away from equity markets that recently performed well and moving into equity markets market just prior to relatively strong performance. Such behavior suggests tactical reallocations to increase returns rather than reduce risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 19963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19963
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19963.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Performance Measurement without Benchmarks: An Examination of Mutual Fund Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 47-68, January.
    2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    4. Richard M. Levich & Gregory S. Hayt & Beth A. Ripston, 1999. "1998 Survey of Derivatives and Risk Management Practices by U.S. Institutional Investors," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-074, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 67-109.
    6. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    9. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166.
    10. Bernard Dumas & Karen K. Lewis & Emilio Osambela, 2017. "Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 750-800.
    11. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    12. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Robert Kollmann & Philippe Martin, 2009. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand, and Redistributive Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 231-263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    14. John Ammer & Sara B. Holland & David C. Smith & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "U.S. International Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1139, December.
    15. Richards, Anthony J, 1997. "Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can They Be Explained?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2129-2144, December.
    16. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, June.
    17. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    18. Cai, Fang & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Foreign exposure through domestic equities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 8-20.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    20. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    21. Christian Leuz & Karl V. Lins & Francis E. Warnock, 2010. "Do Foreigners Invest Less in Poorly Governed Firms?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 3245-3285, March.
    22. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    23. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    24. Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Goran, 2001. "Direct foreign ownership, institutional investors, and firm characteristics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 413-440, March.
    25. Francis E. Warnock & Chad Cleaver, 2003. "Financial Centres and the Geography of Capital Flows," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 27-59, March.
    26. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    28. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    29. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1495-1530.
    30. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    31. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    32. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    33. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
    34. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    35. Hali J. Edison & Francis E. Warnock, 2004. "U.S. Investors' Emerging Market Equity Portfolios: A Security-Level Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 691-704, August.
    36. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    37. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2007. "The uncovered return parity condition," Working Paper Series 812, European Central Bank.
    38. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2012. "Emerging Local Currency Bond Markets," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(4), pages 73-93, July.
    39. Kim, Heeho, 2011. "The risk adjusted uncovered equity parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1491-1505.
    40. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    41. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, April.
    42. van Wincoop, Eric & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    44. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2010. "International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 358-386, March.
    45. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
    46. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
    47. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2003. "Current Accounts in the Long and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 65-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2010. "Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 113-128, January.
    49. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:467-498 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    51. Ronald Balvers & Yangru Wu & Erik Gilliland, 2000. "Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 745-772, April.
    52. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    53. Wayne Ferson & Kenneth Khang, 2002. "Conditional Performance Measurement Using Portfolio Weights: Evidence for Pension Funds," NBER Working Papers 8790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Kang, Jun-Koo & Stulz, Rene M., 1997. "Why is there a home bias? An analysis of foreign portfolio equity ownership in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-28, October.
    55. Rey, Hélène & Hau, Harald, 2008. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing Under the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Stephanie E. Curcuru, 2007. "U.S. Cross-Border Derivatives Data: A User's Guide," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 93(May), pages .1-16, May.
    58. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "How Distance, Language, and Culture Influence Stockholdings and Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1053-1073, June.
    59. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    60. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    61. Maurice Obstfeld, 2010. "Expanding gross asset positions and the international monetary system," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-478.
    62. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    63. Carol C. Bertaut & Ralph W. Tryon, 2007. "Monthly estimates of U.S. cross-border securities positions," International Finance Discussion Papers 910, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    64. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    2. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    4. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    5. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers 405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    8. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    9. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    10. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Uncovered equity “disparity” in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    12. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    13. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    14. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    15. Ülkü, Numan & Fatullayev, Sabutay & Diachenko, Daria, 2016. "Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-54.
    16. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    17. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    18. Djeutem, Edouard & Dunbar, Geoffrey R., 2022. "Uncovered return parity: Equity returns and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    19. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    20. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Peichu Xie, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," IMF Working Papers 2020/101, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.