[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/16243.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Mark M. Spiegel
Abstract
We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," NBER Working Papers 16243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16243
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16243.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    3. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    4. Philip R Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 77-110, April.
    5. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Anders Skrondal & Andrew Pickles, 2004. "GLLAMM Manual," U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series 1160, Berkeley Electronic Press.
    6. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 287-334.
    7. Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
    8. Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Luc Laeven & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/044, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis [From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, differences and lessons]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 267-293.
    10. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder DeMarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    12. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    2. Chinazzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier A. & Schiavo, Stefano, 2013. "Post-mortem examination of the international financial network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1692-1713.
    3. Dwyer, Shane & Tan, Chih Ming, 2014. "Hits and runs: Determinants of the cross-country variation in the severity of impact from the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 69-90.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Artha Hoxha, 2018. "Explaining the impact of the global financial crisis on European transition countries: a GVAR approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 81-97.
    7. Claessens, Stijn & Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "From the financial crisis to the real economy: Using firm-level data to identify transmission channels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-387.
    8. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    9. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    10. Jun, Doobae & Ahn, Changmo & Kim, Gwangil, 2017. "Analysis of the global financial crisis using statistical moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 47-52.
    11. Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
    12. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    13. Karl Aiginger, 2011. "Why Growth Performance Differed across Countries in the Recent Crisis: the Impact of Pre-crisis Conditions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 35-52, August.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    15. AIGINGER Karl, 2011. "Why Performance Differed Across Countries In The Recent Crisis," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 20-27.
    16. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2010. "Weathering the financial storm: The importance of fundamentals and flexibility," Economics Working Papers 2010-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Anna Shostya, 2019. "The Global Financial Crisis in Transition Economies: The Role of Initial Conditions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 37-51, March.
    18. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    19. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Ocal, 2014. "Financial Integration and Growth: A Nonlinear Panel Data Analysis," ERC Working Papers 1415, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2014.
    20. Mirzaei, Ali & Grosse, Robert, 2019. "The interaction of quantity and quality of finance: Did it make industries more resilient to the recent global financial crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 493-512.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.