[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mod/depeco/0643.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China’s New Demographic Challenge: From Unlimited Supply of Labour to Structural Lack of Labour Supply. Labour market and demographic scenarios: 2008-2048

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Bruni
Abstract
The paper focuses on the demographic and labour market consequences of the dramatic decline in fertility that has characterized China starting at the beginning of the ‘50s. It is shared opinion that a sustained decline in fertility below replacement level will provoke a decline in Total population, an even more pronounced decline in Working age population and very relevant ageing phenomena. I have recently shown that, on the contrary and coherently with empirical evidence, a decline in fertility provokes a structural lack of labour supply that determines positive migration balances and, finally, positive demographic trends. The paper applies the same approach to China with similar results. The decline in fertility, determined by the process of economic development and its impact on education and urbanization, but promoted also trough the one-child policy, will provoke a relevant and growing structural lack of labour supply, even in the hypothesis that Chinese employment growth should sharply decline. The implication is that in order to continue its road to economic growth and social development, China will have to rely on large and growing migration flows that will determine a demographic expansion. In conclusion, the decline in fertility, actively pursued to set a ceiling to population growth, will end up provoking the opposite result. The uncertainty about the age structure of the Chinese population makes it impossible to determine in which year China will start to be affected by serious labour shortages. Our scenarios do however clearly show that China will reach the Lewis turning point in the next few years and before the middle of the century will become the world largest importer of labour. Our analysis does therefore clearly suggest that any legal restriction to fertility and territorial mobility is totally unwarranted, and that China should start to consider educational and labour policies aimed to mitigate labour shortages. It also indicates the necessity to start an in depth discussion of which immigration and social integration policies could better serve the interests of China, on the light both of the experiences of other countries, and of the role that China wants to play in the international arena.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Bruni, 2011. "China’s New Demographic Challenge: From Unlimited Supply of Labour to Structural Lack of Labour Supply. Labour market and demographic scenarios: 2008-2048," Department of Economics 0643, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0643
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dep.unimore.it/materiali_discussione/0643.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marina Murat & Barbara Pistoresi, 2009. "Emigrant and immigrant networks in FDI," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1261-1264.
    2. Giuseppe Marotta, 1997. "Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1619-1629.
    3. Bj�rn Fastrich & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2014. "Cardinality versus q -norm constraints for index tracking," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 2019-2032, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tindara Addabbo & Anna Maccagnan, 2011. "The Italian Labour Market and the Crisis," Department of Economics 0644, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tindara Addabbo & Anna Maccagnan & Carmen Llorca-Rodríguez & Rosa García-Fernández, 2010. "Income distribution and the effect of the financial crisis on the Italian and Spanish labour markets," Department of Economics 0639, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. Emanuele Ciani & Donatella Fresu, 2011. "From SHIW to IT-SILC: construction and representativeness of the new CAPP_DYN first-year population," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0092, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2011. "Exports and Italy’s economic development: a long-run perspective (1863-2004)," Department of Economics 0655, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    4. Tindara Addabbo & Anna Maccagnan, 2011. "The Italian Labour Market and the Crisis," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0086, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Paola Bertolini & Enrico Giovannetti & Francesco Pagliacci, 2011. "Regional patterns in the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy: a comparison between polycentric regions and monocentric ones," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0097, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Marina Murat & Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2011. "Transnational Social Capital And Fdi: Evidence From Italian Associations Worldwide," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2010. "Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0633, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    8. Emanuele Ciani & Marcello Morciano, 2011. "Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    9. Sebastian G. Kessing & Chiara Strozzi, 2017. "The regional distribution of public employment: theory and evidence," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(7), pages 1100-1114, July.
    10. Ennio Bilancini & Leonardo Boncinelli, 2011. "Dynamic Adverse Selection and the Size of the Informed Side of the Market," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 057, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    11. Giovanni Bonifati, 2010. "Exaptation, Degeneracy and Innovation," Department of Economics 0638, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    12. Barbara Pistoresi & Valeria Venturelli, 2012. "Credit, Venture Capital And Regional Economic Growth," Department of Economics 0680, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    13. Bj�rn Fastrich & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2014. "Cardinality versus q -norm constraints for index tracking," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 2019-2032, November.
    14. Enrico Giovannetti & Francesco Pagliacci, 2010. "A Multi-Scalar Analysis of European Cities," Department of Economics 0641, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    15. Daniele Pacifico, 2010. "Estimating nonparametric mixed logit models via EM algorithm," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0072, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    16. repec:mod:depeco:0009 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Massimo Baldini & Teresio Poggio, 2012. "Housing Policy Towards the Rental Sector in Italy: A Distributive Assessment," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 563-581.
    18. Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano & Elena Pisano & Simone Tedeschi, 2010. "The Introduction of a Private Wealth Module in CAPP_DYN: an Overview," Department of Economics 0630, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    19. Piero Cipollone & Eugene García & Paola Mengoli & Mehmet Dali Ozturk & Annamaria Poggi & Donatella Poliandri & Margherita Russo, 2012. "Education systems facing the challenges of technological, organizational and social changes: US and Italy in a comparative perspective," Department of Economics 0678, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    20. Álvarez, Jorge & Bilancini, Ennio & D'Alessandro, Simone & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Agricultural institutions, industrialization and growth: The case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 151-168, April.
    21. Ennio Bilancini, 2010. "On the Rationalizability of Observed Consumers Choise when Prefeerences else," Department of Economics 0636, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; Labour market; Demographic and labour market scenarios; Migrations; Lewis turning point; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0643. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sara Colombini (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demodit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.