[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lsg/lsgwps/wp178.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade

Author

Listed:
  • Misato Sato
  • Antoine Dechezlepr�tre
Abstract
This paper measures the response of bilateral trade flows to differences in industrial energy prices across countries. Using a panel for the period 1996-2011 including 42 countries, 62 sectors and covering 60% of global merchandise trade, we estimate the short-run effects of sector-level energy price asymmetry on trade. We find that changes in relative energy prices have a statistically significant but very small impact on imports. On average, a 10% increase in the energy price difference between two country-sectors increases imports by 0.2%. The impact is larger for energy-intensive sectors. Even in these sectors however, the magnitude of the effect is such that changes in energy price differences across time explain less than 0.01% of the variation in trade flows. Simulations based on our model predict that a �40-65/tCO2 price of carbon in the EU ETS would increase Europe�s imports from the rest of the world by less than 0.05% and decrease exports by 0.2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Misato Sato & Antoine Dechezlepr�tre, 2015. "Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade," GRI Working Papers 178, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Working-Paper-178-Sato-and-Dechezlepretre.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Misato Sato & Gregor Singer & Damien Dussaux & Stefania Lovo, 2015. "International and sectoral variation in energy prices 1995-2011: how does it relate to emissions policy stringency?," GRI Working Papers 187, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Aichele, Rahel & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2012. "Kyoto and the carbon footprint of nations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 336-354.
    3. Demailly, Damien & Quirion, Philippe, 2008. "European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 2009-2027, July.
    4. Sergey V. Paltsev, 2001. "The Kyoto Protocol: Regional and Sectoral Contributions to the Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 53-80.
    5. Arik Levinson & M. Scott Taylor, 2008. "Unmasking The Pollution Haven Effect," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 223-254, February.
    6. Arik Levinson, 2010. "Offshoring Pollution: Is the United States Increasingly Importing Polluting Goods?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 63-83, Winter.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Windmeijer, Frank, 2002. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 113-131, May.
    8. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: A new database," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1210, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    9. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2013. "Estimating the Effects of Kyoto on Bilateral Trade Flows Using Matching Econometrics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 303-330, March.
    10. Philippe Quirion & Damien Demailly, 2006. "Leakage from climate policies and border tax adjustment:lessons from a geographic model of the cement industry," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00009337, HAL.
    11. Onno Kuik & Reyer Gerlagh, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 97-120.
    12. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    13. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
    14. Adam B. Jaffe et al., 1995. "Environmental Regulation and the Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 132-163, March.
    15. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer, 2015. "The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 565-595.
    16. Carolyn Fischer & Alan K. Fox, 2007. "Output-Based Allocation of Emissions Permits for Mitigating Tax and Trade Interactions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(4), pages 575-599.
    17. Rema Hanna, 2010. "US Environmental Regulation and FDI: Evidence from a Panel of US-Based Multinational Firms," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 158-189, July.
    18. Reyer Gerlagh & Onno Kuik, 2007. "Carbon Leakage with International Technology Spillovers," Working Papers 2007.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and the Environment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 7-71, March.
    20. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
    21. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2007. "Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 260-281, September.
    22. Cameron Hepburn & Michael Grubb & Karsten Neuhoff & Felix Matthes & Maximilien Tse, 2006. "Auctioning of EU ETS phase II allowances: how and why?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 137-160, January.
    23. Jerneja Jug & Daniel Mirza, 2005. "Environmental Regulations in Gravity Equations: Evidence from Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(11), pages 1591-1615, November.
    24. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    25. repec:clg:wpaper:2008-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2000. "Carbon Emission Leakages: A General Equilibrium View," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 242, OECD Publishing.
    27. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.
    28. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    29. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1990. "The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model, the Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-industry Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1216-1229, December.
    30. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    31. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Piontek, Franziska & Bertram, Christoph & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 882-894.
    32. Xin Zhou & Takashi Yano & Satoshi Kojima, 2011. "Addressing Carbon Leakage by Border Adjustment Measures," Chapters, in: Juan A. Blanco & Houshang Kheradmand (ed.), Climate Change - Research and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation, IntechOpen.
    33. Gerlagh, Reyer & Mathys, Nicole A., 2011. "Energy Abundance, Trade and Industry Location," Sustainable Development Papers 99639, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    34. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
    35. Michael E. Porter, 1991. "Towards a dynamic theory of strategy," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(S2), pages 95-117, December.
    36. Peter Egger & Christoph Jeßberger & Mario Larch, 2011. "Trade and investment liberalization as determinants of multilateral environmental agreement membership," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(6), pages 605-633, December.
    37. Tim Jeppesen & John A. List & Henk Folmer, 2002. "Environmental Regulations and New Plant Location Decisions: Evidence from a Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 19-49, February.
    38. Chengang Wang & Yingqi Wei & Xiaming Liu, 2010. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 894-915, July.
    39. Michael E. Porter & Claas van der Linde, 1995. "Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 97-118, Fall.
    40. Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & John van Reenen, 1999. "Market Share, Market Value and Innovation in a Panel of British Manufacturing Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 529-554.
    41. Hartmut Egger & Peter Egger, 2005. "The Determinants of EU Processing Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 147-168, February.
    42. Barker, Terry & Junankar, Sudhir & Pollitt, Hector & Summerton, Philip, 2007. "Carbon leakage from unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6281-6292, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Surender Kumar & Prerna Prabhakar, 2020. "Industrial energy prices and export competitiveness: evidence from India," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Gabriela Michalek & Reimund Schwarze, 2015. "Carbon leakage: pollution, trade or politics?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 1471-1492, December.
    3. Zhu, Junming & Ruth, Matthias, 2015. "Relocation or reallocation: Impacts of differentiated energy saving regulation on manufacturing industries in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 119-133.
    4. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Misato Sato, 2017. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Competitiveness," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 183-206.
    6. Misato Sato & Karsten Neuhoff & Verena Graichen & Katja Schumacher & Felix Matthes, 2013. "Sectors under scrutiny � Evaluation of indicators to assess the risk of carbon leakage in the UK and Germany," GRI Working Papers 113, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Zaki, Chahir, 2008. "Does Trade Facilitation Matter in Bilateral Trade?," Conference papers 331804, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Rahel Aichele, 2013. "Trade, Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage - Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 49.
    9. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    10. Suárez-Varela, Marta & Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto, 2022. "Is dirty trade concentrating in more polluting countries? Evidence from Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 728-744.
    11. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    12. Jared C. Carbone & Nicholas Rivers, 2014. "Climate policy and competitiveness: Policy guidance and quantitative evidence," Working Papers 2014-05, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    13. Costantini, Valeria & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2012. "On the green and innovative side of trade competitiveness? The impact of environmental policies and innovation on EU exports," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 132-153.
    14. Stibniati Atmadja & Louis Verchot, 2012. "A review of the state of research, policies and strategies in addressing leakage from reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 311-336, March.
    15. Leiter, Andrea M. & Parolini, Arno & Winner, Hannes, 2011. "Environmental regulation and investment: Evidence from European industry data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 759-770, February.
    16. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Panel Data Gravity Models of International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 4616, CESifo.
    17. Narayanan G., Badri & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2011. "The Role of Labor Standards in International Trade: A CGE Approach," Conference papers 332097, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Christian Beermann, 2015. "Climate Policy and the Intertemporal Supply of Fossil Resources," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 62.
    19. Madison Condon & Ada Ignaciuk, 2013. "Border Carbon Adjustment and International Trade: A Literature Review," OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers 2013/6, OECD Publishing.
    20. Antimiani, Alessandro & Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara & Salvatici, Luca & Tommasino, Maria Cristina, 2013. "Assessing alternative solutions to carbon leakage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 299-311.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The GRI Administration (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/grlseuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.