[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp12650.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Perceptions of Economic Well-Being Predict the Onset of War and Peace?

Author

Listed:
  • Swee, Eik

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Zhan, Haikun

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Powdthavee, Nattavudh

    (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

Abstract
While economic deprivation is an important determinant of civil conflict, it cannot completely explain the incentives for warfare. In irregular wars, for example, both incumbents and insurgents may employ various tactics to win the hearts and minds of civilians in order to muster territorial control. This paper considers whether and to what extent civilian perception of economic well-being, possibly influenced by such tactics, predicts war and peace onset. Using unique data bracketing the onset of the Nepalese Civil War, we find that higher levels of perceived income adequacy are associated with later war onset during periods of rebel recruitment, and with earlier peace onset in general. These results hold regardless of whether we account for actual economic circumstance, and are especially strong among marginalised communities. Our results suggest that civilian perception of well-being ought to be considered seriously as a determinant of war and peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Swee, Eik & Zhan, Haikun & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2019. "Do Perceptions of Economic Well-Being Predict the Onset of War and Peace?," IZA Discussion Papers 12650, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp12650.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fafchamps, Marcel & Shilpi, Forhad, 2008. "Subjective welfare, isolation, and relative consumption," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 43-60, April.
    2. Andrew E. Clark, 2003. "Unemployment as a Social Norm: Psychological Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 289-322, April.
    3. Khanna, Gaurav & Zimmermann, Laura, 2017. "Guns and butter? Fighting violence with the promise of development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 120-141.
    4. Robert J. MacCulloch & Rafael Di Tella & Andrew J. Oswald, 2001. "Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 335-341, March.
    5. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1995. "Theorizing about conflict," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 165-189, Elsevier.
    6. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2002. "Self-rated economic welfare in Russia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1453-1473, September.
    7. Oliver Vanden Eynde, 2018. "Targets of Violence: Evidence from India's Naxalite Conflict," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 887-916, March.
    8. Robert J. B. Goudie & Sach Mukherjee & Jan-Emmanuel Neve & Andrew J. Oswald & Stephen Wu, 2014. "Happiness as a Driver of Risk-avoiding Behaviour: Theory and an Empirical Study of Seatbelt Wearing and Automobile Accidents," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(324), pages 674-697, October.
    9. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    10. Panza, Laura & Swee, Eik Leong, 2023. "Fanning the flames: Rainfall shocks, inter‐ethnic income inequality, and conflict intensification in Mandate Palestine," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 71-94.
    11. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    12. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2019. "What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 275-328, June.
    13. Quy-Toan Do & Lakshmi Iyer, 2010. "Geography, poverty and conflict in Nepal," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 735-748, November.
    14. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2013. "Genetic Diversity and the Origins of Cultural Fragmentation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 528-533, May.
    15. Berman, Eli & Matanock, Aila, 2015. "The Empiricists' Insurgency," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5zs4h0sh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    16. Robert J. B. Goudie & Sach Mukherjee & Jan-Emmanuel De Neve & Andrew J. Oswald & Stephen Wu, 2011. "Happiness as a Driver of Risk-Avoiding Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 3451, CESifo.
    17. Pivovarova, Margarita & Swee, Eik Leong, 2015. "Quantifying the Microeconomic Effects of War Using Panel Data: Evidence From Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 308-321.
    18. Olga Shemyakina & Anke Plagnol, 2013. "Subjective Well-Being and Armed Conflict: Evidence from Bosnia-Herzegovina," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1129-1152, September.
    19. Andrew J. Oswald & Eugenio Proto & Daniel Sgroi, 2015. "Happiness and Productivity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(4), pages 789-822.
    20. Coupe, Tom & Obrizan, Maksym, 2016. "The impact of war on happiness: The case of Ukraine," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 228-242.
    21. Victor Lavy & Rigissa Megalokonomou, 2019. "Persistency in Teachers’ Grading Bias and Effects on Longer-Term Outcomes: University Admissions Exams and Choice of Field of Study," NBER Working Papers 26021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Enrico Moretti & Emmanuel Saez, 2012. "Inequality at Work: The Effect of Peer Salaries on Job Satisfaction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2981-3003, October.
    23. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "The Logic of Political Violence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1411-1445.
    24. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    25. Shikha Silwal, 2013. "A spatial-temporal analysis of civil war: The case of Nepal," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 20-25, October.
    26. Siri A. Rustad, 2016. "Socioeconomic Inequalities and Attitudes toward Violence: A Test with New Survey Data in the Niger Delta," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 106-139, January.
    27. Gomes, Joseph Flavian, 2015. "The Political Economy of the Maoist Conflict in India: An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 96-123.
    28. repec:lic:licosd:39117 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Eli Berman & Jacob N. Shapiro & Joseph H. Felter, 2011. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 766-819.
    30. George Ward, 2020. "Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 504-518, July.
    31. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    32. S. Mansoob Murshed & Scott Gates, 2005. "Spatial–Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 121-134, February.
    33. Oliver Vanden Eynde, 2018. "Targets of Violence: Evidence from India's Naxalite Conflict," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(609), pages 887-916, March.
    34. Menno Pradhan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Measuring Poverty Using Qualitative Perceptions Of Consumption Adequacy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 462-471, August.
    35. Mitra, Anirban & Mitra, Shabana, 2020. "Redistribution of Economic Resources due to Conflict: The Maoist Uprising in Nepal," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 578-604.
    36. Vera Mironova & Loubna Mrie & Sam Whitt, 2020. "Commitment to Rebellion: Evidence from Syria," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(4), pages 614-639, April.
    37. Singhal, Saurabh & Nilakantan, Rahul, 2016. "The economic effects of a counterinsurgency policy in India: A synthetic control analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    38. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    39. Helge Holtermann, 2016. "Relative Capacity and the Spread of Rebellion," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(3), pages 501-529, April.
    40. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    41. Christine Valente, 2014. "Education and Civil Conflict in Nepal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 354-383.
    42. Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Paul Frijters, 2004. "How Important is Methodology for the estimates of the determinants of Happiness?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 641-659, July.
    43. Nattavudh Powdthavee, 2009. "How important is rank to individual perception of economic standing? A within-community analysis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 7(3), pages 225-248, September.
    44. Stathis N. Kalyvas & Matthew Adam Kocher, 2009. "The Dynamics of Violence in Vietnam: An Analysis of the Hamlet Evaluation System (HES)," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 335-355, May.
    45. Karin Dyrstad & Solveig Hillesund, 2020. "Explaining Support for Political Violence: Grievance and Perceived Opportunity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(9), pages 1724-1753, October.
    46. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    47. Benjamin Crost & Joseph Felter & Patrick Johnston, 2014. "Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1833-1856, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kumar, Dushyant & Roy Chowdhury, Prabal, 2022. "Winning hearts and minds in conflict-ridden areas: Development as a signal of benevolence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaila, Heidi & Singhal, Saurabh & Tuteja, Divya, 2020. "Development programs, security, and violence reduction: Evidence from an insurgency in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Edoardo Chiarotti & Nathalie Monnet, 2019. "Hit them in the Wallet! An Analysis of the Indian Demonetization as a Counter-Insurgency Policy," IHEID Working Papers 03-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Do fences make good neighbours?: Evidence from an insurgency in India," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-158, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2019. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1220, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Thiemo Fetzer, 2020. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3337-3375.
    6. Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Chowdhury, Prabal Roy & Rahman, Habibur, 2023. "Does credit availability mitigate domestic conflict?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food aid and violent conflict: A review and Empiricist’s companion," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food Aid and Violent Conflict: A Review of Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 16574, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    11. Thiemo Fetzer & Pedro C. L. Souza & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L. Wright, 2021. "Security Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2275-2308, July.
    12. Jetter, Michael, 2016. "Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict? Understanding the Decision of an Opposition Group," IZA Discussion Papers 9996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Miaari, Sami & Zussman, Asaf & Zussman, Noam, 2014. "Employment restrictions and political violence in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 24-44.
    14. Yashodhan Ghorpade, 2020. "Calamity, Conflict, and Cash Transfers: How Violence Affects Access to Aid in Pakistan," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 1131-1184.
    15. Michael Jetter & Bei Li, 2017. "The Political Economy of Opposition Groups: Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 6747, CESifo.
    16. Magesan, Arvind & Swee, Eik Leong, 2018. "Out of the ashes, into the fire: The consequences of U.S. weapons sales for political violence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 133-156.
    17. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    18. Gehring, Kai & Langlotz, Sarah & Kienberger, Stefan, 2018. "Stimulant or depressant? Resource-related income shocks and conflict," Working Papers 0652, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    19. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    20. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Laughren, Kevin & Sheremeta, Roman, 2020. "War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 998-1013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic well-being; war onset; peace onset; Nepal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.