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Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold

Author

Listed:
  • Dirk G. Baur
  • Brian M. Lucey
Abstract
This paper addresses two questions. First, we investigate whether gold is a hedge against stocks and/or bonds and second, we investigate whether gold is a safe haven for investors if either stocks or bonds fall. A safe haven is defined as a security that loses none of its value in case of a market crash. This is counterpoised against a hedge, defined as a security that does not co-move with stocks or bonds on average. We study constant and time-varying relationships between stocks, bonds and gold in order to investigate the existence of a hedge and a safe haven. The empirical analysis examines US, UK and German stock and bond prices and returns and their relationship with the Gold price. We find that (i) Gold is a hedge against stocks, (ii) Gold is a safe haven in extreme stock market conditions and (iii) Gold is a safe haven for stocks only for 15 trading days after an extreme shock occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp198
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
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    4. Brian M Lucey, Valerio Poti, Edel Tully, 2006. "International Portfolio Formation, Skewness & the Role of Gold," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 3(1), pages 49-68, June.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Safe haven; gold; stock-bond correlation; flight-to-quality;
    All these keywords.

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