[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/pbrief/pb18-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier J Blanchard

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Christopher G. Collins

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

  • Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

  • Thomas Pellet

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Beth Anne Wilson

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Abstract
Immediately following the US presidential election in November 2016, many economists were concerned that increased uncertainty over economic policy would lead to a decline in the US stock market. From the time of the election to the end of 2017, however, the stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 index, increased by about 25 percent. Price swings since then have led investors and economists to increasingly ask: Was the stock market rise justified by an increase in actual and expected future dividends, or did it reflect unhealthy price developments, which may reverse in the future? This Policy Brief examines the movement of stock market prices from the time of the election to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than one half of the run-up in the S&P 500 can be explained by an increase in actual and expected dividends. The effects of the perceived probability that a corporate tax cut bill would pass Congress account for 2 to 6 percentage points of this increase. The rest can be attributed to a decrease of less than 100 basis points in the equity premium, a decrease that leaves it roughly equal to where it was in the mid-2000s. Lower uncertainty in the rest of the world, in particular in Europe, more than offset the higher policy uncertainty in the United States following the 2016 presidential election and can plausibly justify this decrease in the equity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier J Blanchard & Christopher G. Collins & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Thomas Pellet & Beth Anne Wilson, 2018. "Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?," Policy Briefs PB18-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb18-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/why-has-stock-market-risen-so-much-us-presidential-election
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    8. Møller, Stig V. & Sander, Magnus, 2017. "Dividends, earnings, and predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 153-163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patric H. Hendershott & Kyung-Hwan Kim & Jin Man Lee & James D. Shilling, 2021. "Announcement Effects: Taxation of Housing Capital Gains in Seoul," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 319-341, April.
    2. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    3. Shehu U.R. Aliyu, 2019. "Do Presidential Elections Affect Stock Market Returns In Nigeria?," West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, West African Monetary Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 40-56, June.
    4. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi & Omed Rafiq Fatah & Awaz Mohamed Saleem, 2023. "Oil Exports, Political Issues, and Stock Market Nexus," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 362-373, January.
    5. Chan, Kam Fong & Marsh, Terry, 2021. "Asset prices, midterm elections, and political uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 276-296.
    6. Clifford Paul Hallwood, 2021. "Correcting US payments imbalances: Taxing foreign holders of its treasury securities is better than import tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(8), pages 2228-2237, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanchard, Olivier & Collins, Christopher G. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Pellet, Thomas & Wilson, Beth Anne, 2018. "A year of rising dangerously? The U.S. stock market performance in the aftermath of the presidential election," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 489-502.
    2. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Forecasting dividend growth: The role of adjusted earnings yield," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    5. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
    6. Roni Michaely & Stefano Rossi & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Information Content of Dividends: Safer Profits, Not Higher Profits," CESifo Working Paper Series 6751, CESifo.
    7. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    8. Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.
    9. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher, 2019. "Stock return predictability: Evidence from a structural model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 412-424.
    10. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    12. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    13. Jian Chen & Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty in China and stock market expected returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1265-1286, December.
    14. Yaoting Lei & Ya Li & Jing Xu, 2020. "Two Birds, One Stone: Joint Timing of Returns and Capital Gains Taxes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 823-843, February.
    15. Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, 2014. "Brazil's middle classes," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 759, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    16. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
    17. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
    18. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    19. Ólan Henry & Semih Kerestecioglu & Sam Pybis, 2024. "Can financial uncertainty forecast aggregate stock market returns?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 91-111, May.
    20. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb18-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.