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Zero-Interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets

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  • Andreas Hoffmann
Abstract
Since 2009, central banks in the major advanced economies have held interest rates at very low levels to stabilize financial markets and support the recovery of their economies. Based on a Mises-Hayek-BIS view on credit booms and Mises’ law of unintended consequences, this paper suggests that the prolonged period of very low interest rates in the large advanced economies (unintentionally) spurs volatile capital flows and fuels asset market bubbles in fast-growing emerging markets. The resulting inflationary pressure and risks of capital flow reversals gives rise to a new wave of interventionism as policymakers in emerging markets increasingly reintroduce financially repressive measures to isolate the economies from foreign capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-Interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," ICER Working Papers 02-2014, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:02-2014
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Hoffmann, 2019. "Beware of Financial Repression: Lessons from History," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 259-266, July.
    2. Anni Huang & Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2019. "The rise of dollar credit in emerging market economies and US monetary policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 530-551, February.
    3. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2015. "Expectation in Austrian business cycle theory: Market share matters," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 151-165, June.
    4. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexander W. Salter, 2017. "The view from Vienna: An analysis of the renewed interest in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 169-192, June.
    5. Mehmet ORHAN & Halil İbrahim ÇELİKEL, 2014. "The Spillover Effects of Fed’s Policies with Emphasis to the Fragile Five," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(12), pages 1011-1020.
    6. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexander W. Salter, 2020. "The super-alertness of central banks," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 187-200, March.
    7. William R. White, 2012. "Ultra easy monetary policy and the law of unintended consequences," Globalization Institute Working Papers 126, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Cachanosky, Nicolas, 2014. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on Colombia and Panama (2002–2007)," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 428-436.
    9. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.
    10. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Warum der frühe Ausstieg aus der finanziellen Repression lohnt [Why an Early Exit from Financial Repression is Worthwhile]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(7), pages 498-503, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Emerging Markets; Financial Repression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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