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Arrears as a Sign of Financial Repression in Transition Economies - The Case of Romania

Author

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  • Luoana D. Santarossa
Abstract
This study looks at the signs of financial repression in a transition economy, by evaluating to what extent "perverse financial innovations" resulting from soft budget constraints interfere with monetary developments at the aggregate macroeconomic level. Specifically, the paper investigates to what extent inter-enterprise arrears could act as substitute for transaction money and interfere with the efficiency of restrictive monetary policies, as reflected in money velocity. The particular case of Romania is analysed in two settings: (i) in an ad-hoc econometric investigation on the determinants of M1 and M2 velocity and (ii) in a simple money demand-money supply model which is estimated with and without endogenous inter-enterprise arrears as determinant of money demand. The general conclusion of the research is that, even though it is theoretically possible for overdue trade debt and arrears to interfere with monetary policy effectiveness and reflect upon the evolution of monetary aggregates, this was NOT the case with inter-enterprise arrears in Romania between 1991-1995. The main conclusion for economic policy is that restricting the growth of liquidity and credit in the economy through monetary measures is not enough for hardening budget constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Luoana D. Santarossa, 2001. "Arrears as a Sign of Financial Repression in Transition Economies - The Case of Romania," CERT Discussion Papers 0104, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hwe:certdp:0104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004. "Economia Romaniei in perioada 2003-2010: Estimari de macromodel [Romanian economy during 2003-2010: Macromodel estimations]," MPRA Paper 35768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hildebrandt, Antje, 2002. "Too many to fail? Inter-enterprise arrears in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2002, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Hildebrandt, Antje, 2002. "Too many to fail? : Inter-enterprise arrears in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    7. Antje Hildebrandt, 2002. "Too many to fail? Inter-enterprise arrears in transition economies," Development and Comp Systems 0212001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Oana Apostol & Salme Näsi, 2014. "Firm–Employee Relationships from a Social Responsibility Perspective: Developments from Communist Thinking to Market Ideology in Romania. A Mass Media Story," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 301-315, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial repression; transition; money; velocity; inter-enterprise arrears;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P31 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Socialist Enterprises and Their Transitions
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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