[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/314.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • John Chiwuzulum Odozi

    (Research Fellow at the French Institute for Research in Africa, Institute of African Studies, University of Ibadan, Nigeria)

  • Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere

    (Department of Economics Agnes Scott College, Atlanta, USA; IZA, Bonn Germany and Global Labor Organization)

Abstract
Several papers have attempted to estimate and document the impact of conflict on several education, health and socioeconomic outcomes. One lesson from the past research is the heterogeneity in the effect of violent conflict across and within countries. In this paper we attempt to estimate the casual impact of conflict in Nigeria on welfare related outcomes. The 2009 insurgence of Boko Haram and the Fulani herdsmen versus farmers conflicts have led to a significant increase in violent conflict in the North Eastern and Central parts of Nigeria. However, bouts of violent conflict have existed in different communities across the country since independence. We estimate the average effect of violent conflict exposure on welfare, across Nigeria using the three waves of the Nigerian General Household Survey (GHS) panel combined with The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Employing a fixed effect approach, our results suggest that recent and long term exposure to conflict increased the incidence, intensity and severity of poverty in Nigeria. In addition we find that exposure to violent conflict also decreased household income.

Suggested Citation

  • John Chiwuzulum Odozi & Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere, 2019. "Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 314, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/HiCN-WP-314.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heather Royer, 2009. "Separated at Girth: US Twin Estimates of the Effects of Birth Weight," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 49-85, January.
    2. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2006. "Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 450-474, July.
    3. Paul Andres Corral Rodas & Vasco Molini & Gbemisola Oseni, 2019. "No Condition is Permanent: Middle Class in Nigeria in the Last Decade," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 294-310, February.
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    5. Akresh, Richard & de Walque, Damien, 2008. "Armed Conflict and Schooling: Evidence from the 1994 Rwandan Genocide," IZA Discussion Papers 3516, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Saurabh Singhal, 2018. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    8. Shemyakina, Olga, 2011. "The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: Results from Tajikistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 186-200, July.
    9. Singhal, Saurabh, 2019. "Early life shocks and mental health: The long-term effect of war in Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer & Adam Wagstaff & Magnus Lindelow, 2008. "Analyzing Health Equity Using Household Survey Data : A Guide to Techniques and Their Implementation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6896.
    11. D’Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2013. "Conflict, food price shocks, and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 32-47.
    12. Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Poverty Dynamics, Violent Conflict, and Convergence in R wanda," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(1), pages 66-90, March.
    13. Joana Monteiro & Rudi Rocha, 2017. "Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro's Favelas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 213-228, May.
    14. Janet Currie & Tom Vogl, 2013. "Early-Life Health and Adult Circumstance in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 1-36, May.
    15. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    16. Andrea Ichino & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2004. "The Long-Run Educational Cost of World War II," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 57-86, January.
    17. Andrew L. Dabalen & Saumik Paul, 2014. "Estimating the Effects of Conflict on Education in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(12), pages 1631-1646, December.
    18. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    19. Catherine rodr�guez & fabio sánchez, 2012. "Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments, And Child Labor: Evidence From Colombia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 161-184, April.
    20. Philip Verwimp & Jan Van Bavel, 2014. "Schooling, Violent Conflict, and Gender in Burundi," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 384-411.
    21. Enamorado, Ted & López-Calva, Luis F. & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos, 2014. "Crime and growth convergence: Evidence from Mexico," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 9-13.
    22. Miguel, Edward & Roland, Gérard, 2011. "The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-15, September.
    23. Philip Oreopoulos & Mark Stabile & Randy Walld & Leslie L. Roos, 2008. "Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Consequences of Poor Infant Health: An Analysis Using Siblings and Twins," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(1).
    24. Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere & Kate Wharton, 2013. "The Impact of Conflict on Education Attainment and Enrollment in Colombia: lessons from recent IDPs," HiCN Working Papers 141, Households in Conflict Network.
    25. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
    26. Pivovarova, Margarita & Swee, Eik Leong, 2015. "Quantifying the Microeconomic Effects of War Using Panel Data: Evidence From Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 308-321.
    27. Marion Mercier & Rama Lionel Ngenzebuke & Philip Verwimp, 2016. "Violence Exposure and Welfare over Time: Evidence from the Burundi Civil War," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    28. Patricia Justino, 2009. "Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 315-333, May.
    29. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Okonkwo Osili, 2012. "War and Stature: Growing Up during the Nigerian Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 273-277, May.
    30. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per & Shimokawa, Satoru, 2008. "Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 513-520, December.
    31. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    32. Adriana Camacho, 2008. "Stress and Birth Weight: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 511-515, May.
    33. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521793797, September.
    34. Patricia Justino & Marinella Leone & Paola Salardi, 2014. "Short- and Long-Term Impact of Violence on Education: The Case of Timor Leste," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 320-353.
    35. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Morán, Hilcías E., 2011. "The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 41-61, January.
    36. Dabalen, Andrew L. & Paul, Saumik, 2014. "Effect of Conflict on Dietary Diversity: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 143-158.
    37. F. Clementi & A. L. Dabalen & V. Molini & F. Schettino, 2017. "When the Centre Cannot Hold: Patterns of Polarization in Nigeria," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(4), pages 608-632, December.
    38. Brück, Tilman & d’Errico, Marco & Pietrelli, Rebecca, 2019. "The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: Evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 203-223.
    39. Gianmarco León, 2012. "Civil Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation: The Long-term Effects of Political Violence in Perú," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 991-1022.
    40. Minoiu, Camelia & Shemyakina, Olga N., 2014. "Armed conflict, household victimization, and child health in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 237-255.
    41. Croke, Kevin & Dabalen, Andrew & Demombynes, Gabriel & Giugale, Marcelo & Hoogeveen, Johannes, 2012. "Collecting high frequency panel data in Africa using mobile phone interviews," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6097, The World Bank.
    42. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790321, September.
    43. Felipe Barrera & Ana María Ibáñez, 2004. "Does Violence Reduce Investment In Education?: A Theoretical And Empirical Approach," Documentos CEDE 2382, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    44. Richard Akresh & Philip Verwimp & Tom Bundervoet, 2011. "Civil War, Crop Failure, and Child Stunting in Rwanda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 777-810.
    45. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2009. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    46. Marc Rockmore, 2017. "The Cost of Fear: The Welfare Effect of the Risk of Violence in Northern Uganda," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 650-669.
    47. Jamison,Julian C & Mcgee,Kevin Robert & Oseni,Gbemisola & Perng,Julie Ting Ting & Sato,Ryoko & Tanaka,Tomomi - GPV07 & Vakis,Renos, 2018. "The Relationship between Conflicts, Economic Shocks, and Death with Depression, Economic Activities, and Human Capital Investment in Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8685, The World Bank.
    48. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2011 : Conflits, sécurité et développement - Abrégé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4389.
    49. Mansour, Hani & Rees, Daniel I., 2012. "Armed conflict and birth weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 190-199.
    50. Verwimp, Philip, 2012. "Undernutrition, subsequent risk of mortality and civil war in Burundi," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 221-231.
    51. Uche Eseosa Ekhator-Mobayode & Abraham Abebe Asfaw, 2019. "The child health effects of terrorism: evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 624-638, February.
    52. Alexandre Marc & Neelam Verjee & Stephen Mogaka, 2015. "The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa [Relever les défis de la stabilité et de la sécurité en Afrique de l’Ouest]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22033.
    53. Organski, A.F.K. & Kugler, Jacek, 1977. "The Costs of Major Wars: The Phoenix Factor," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1347-1366, December.
    54. Swee, Eik Leong, 2015. "On war intensity and schooling attainment: The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 158-172.
    55. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    56. Christine Valente, 2014. "Education and Civil Conflict in Nepal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 354-383.
    57. Clionadh Raleigh & rew Linke & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen, 2010. "Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 651-660, September.
    58. Kondylis, Florence, 2010. "Conflict displacement and labor market outcomes in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 235-248, November.
    59. Wisdom Oghosa Iyekekpolo, 2016. "Boko Haram: understanding the context," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 2211-2228, December.
    60. Sen, Amartya, 1995. "Inequality Reexamined," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198289289.
    61. World Bank, 2016. "Poverty Reduction in Nigeria in the Last Decade," World Bank Publications - Reports 25825, The World Bank Group.
    62. Adelaja, Adesoji & George, Justin, 2019. "Effects of conflict on agriculture: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 184-195.
    63. Florence Kondylis, 2008. "Agricultural Outputs and Conflict Displacement: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in Rwanda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 31-66, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Avuwadah, Benjamin Y. & Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Mullally, Conner C. & Morgan, Stephen N., 2020. "Heterogenous effects of conflict on agricultural production patterns: Evidence from Nigeria," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304417, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth, 2021. "Does violent conflict affect the labor supply of farm households? The Nigerian experience," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 401-435, December.
    3. John Chiwuzulum Odozi & Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere, 2023. "Evolution of Inequality in Nigeria: a Tale of Falling Inequality, Rising Poverty, and Regional Heterogeneity," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 297-309, December.
    4. Abay, Kibrom A. & Tafere, Kibrom & Berhane, Guush & Chamberlin, Jordan & Abay, Mehari H., 2023. "Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Chiwuzulum Odozi, John & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo, 2020. "Violent Conflict Exposure in Nigeria and Labor Supply of Farm Households," GLO Discussion Paper Series 712, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiwuzulum Odozi, John & Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth, 2019. "Violent Conflict Exposure in Nigeria and Economic Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 12570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Ito, Takahiro & Li, Jia & Usoof-Thowfeek, Ramila & Yamazaki, Koji, 2024. "Educational consequences of firsthand exposure to armed conflict: The case of the Sri Lankan Civil War," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Kaila, Heidi & Azad, Abul, 2023. "The effects of crime and violence on food insecurity and consumption in Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 132, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Tilman Br�ck & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    9. Massimiliano Bratti & Mariapia Mendola & Alfonso Miranda, 2015. "Hard to Forget: the Long-Lasting Impact of War on Mental Health," Development Working Papers 388, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    10. Minoiu, Camelia & Shemyakina, Olga N., 2014. "Armed conflict, household victimization, and child health in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 237-255.
    11. Abay, Kibrom A. & Tafere, Kibrom & Berhane, Guush & Chamberlin, Jordan & Abay, Mehari H., 2023. "Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    12. Richard Akresh, 2016. "Climate Change, Conflict, and Children," HiCN Working Papers 221, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Bharati, Tushar, 2022. "The long shadow of the Kargil War: The effect of early-life stress on education," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    14. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    15. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    16. Mercier, Marion & Ngenzebuke, Rama Lionel & Verwimp, Philip, 2020. "Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 822-840.
    17. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    18. Patricia Justino, 2011. "Violent Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation," HiCN Working Papers 99, Households in Conflict Network.
    19. Weldeegzie, Samuel G., 2017. "Growing-up Unfortunate: War and Human Capital in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 474-489.
    20. Akresh, Richard & Caruso, German Daniel & Thirumurthy, Harsha, 2022. "Detailed geographic information, conflict exposure, and health impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violence; Nigeria; Conflict; Boko Haram; Economic Welfare; Poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tilman Brück or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hicn.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.