[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/vxcafo/2011_001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Swedish Fertility Swings and Public Expenditure for Children

Author

Listed:
  • Lindh, Thomas

    (Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO))

  • Hong, Ying

    (Institute for Futures Study)

Abstract
This paper studies whether Swedish fertility swings and variation in public expenditure for children are related events. In the 1930s Swedish birth rates had fallen to levels close to the death rates and in public discourse this was perceived as a major social and national crisis, spurring a range of social policy reforms. While total fertility rates in Sweden have varied over large spans the completed cohort fertility rates are almost constant around 2 children per woman for women born in the 20th century. Using unique data for the years 1930-1997 on public expenditure per eligible child for schools, child allowances and child care we estimate age-specific fertility for broad age groups as a function of these variables. The results indicate that the age group 25-29 is most sensitive to variations in this public expenditure thus providing a tentative explanation of the swings in period fertility in terms of policy induced tempo variation. School expenditure is negatively correlated to fertility while child care and child allowance is positively correlated. This pattern is consistent with a quantity-quality trade-off by the parents. To check the predictive power of the model we use data from 1998-2007 and get an excellent prediction of the fertility turn-around after 1999 for all age groups except 35 and above where we tend to under-predict at the 10-year horizon. Further research along these lines is needed to uncover the causal mechanisms of these very stable correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindh, Thomas & Hong, Ying, 2011. "Swedish Fertility Swings and Public Expenditure for Children," CAFO Working Papers 2011:1, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2011_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://studieportal-elnu.lnu.se/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=1364
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Sandström, 2017. "A reversal of the socioeconomic gradient of nuptiality during the Swedish mid-20th-century baby boom," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(50), pages 1625-1658.
    2. Adman, Per & Strömblad, Per, 2011. "Utopia becoming dystopia? Analyzing political trust among immigrants in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2011:10, Institute for Futures Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility swings; tempo effects; public child expenditure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2011_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andreas Mångs (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cafovse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.