[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/lunewp/2005_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Default Risk, Systematic Risk and Thai Firms Before, During and After the Asian Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Byström , Hans

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Worasinchai , Lugkana

    (School of Business, Bangkok University)

  • Chongsithipol , Srisuda

    (Graduate School, Bangkok University)

Abstract
This paper applies the Merton (1974) default probability model to the firms in the SET-50 index at the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). It also examines the rela- tionship between a firm's default probability and firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-market ratio, and whether default risk is systematic or not. We believe this to be the first paper dealing with these issues using data from an emerging country. The study also differs from other studies by dealing with how the default risk of firms in different sec- tors of the economy changes during a severe crisis. Overall, we find a significant increase in market based default probabilities around the crisis and a fairly slow return to pre-crisis levels. The first sector to suffer a deterioration in creditworthiness was the sector of finance and securities firms and the worst effected sector at the peak of the Asian crisis was the building materials sector. There are further some indications of the most distressed firms being on average somewhat smaller than the least distressed, but only during the crisis. We do not find significant evidence of the book-to-market ratio being related to the default risk in this particular market, though. Finally, if default risk is systematic, one would expect that default risk is rewarded by higher returns. However, in this sample the level of default risk of a firm does not seem to be able to explain the firm's subsequent realized returns at different horizons. We therefore reject the hypothesis that default risk is systematic.

Suggested Citation

  • Byström , Hans & Worasinchai , Lugkana & Chongsithipol , Srisuda, 2004. "Default Risk, Systematic Risk and Thai Firms Before, During and After the Asian Crisis," Working Papers 2005:5, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book‐to‐Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    7. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    8. Obeua S. Persons, 1999. "Using Financial Information to Differentiate Failed vs. Surviving Finance Companies in Thailand: An Implication for Emerging Economies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 127-145, June.
    9. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Marjit, Sugata & Das, Pranab Kumar & Bardhan, Samaresh, 2007. "A portfolio based theory of excessive foreign borrowing and capital control in a small open economy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 175-187, June.
    3. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2020. "Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011. "Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
    5. Marcelo Yoshio Takami & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2006. "Avaliação Do Risco Sistêmico Do Setor Bancário Brasileiro," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 96, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2007. "IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-104, January.
    7. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Isabel Abinzano & Pilar Corredor & Beatriz Martinez, 2021. "Does family ownership always reduce default risk?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4025-4060, September.
    9. Jacques, Sébastien & Lai, Van Son & Soumaré, Issouf, 2011. "Synthetizing a debt guarantee: Super-replication versus utility approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 27-40, January.
    10. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
    12. Dinh, Thi Huyen Thanh & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2007. "A credit scoring model for Vietnam's retail banking market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 471-495.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Pricing default risk: The good, the bad, and the anomaly," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 190-213.
    2. Jianfu Shen, 2021. "Distress Risk and Stock Returns on Equity REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 455-480, April.
    3. Kevin Aretz & Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kostakis, 2018. "Do Stock Returns Really Decrease with Default Risk? New International Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3821-3842, August.
    4. Deniz Anginer & Çelim Yıldızhan, 2018. "Is There a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross-section of Equity Returns [The risk-adjusted cost of financial distress]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 633-660.
    5. de Groot, Wilma & Huij, Joop, 2018. "Are the Fama-French factors really compensation for distress risk?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 50-69.
    6. Assaf Eisdorfer & Amit Goyal & Alexei Zhdanov, 2018. "Distress Anomaly and Shareholder Risk: International Evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 553-581, September.
    7. Idrees, Sahar & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Distress Risk on Equity Returns: A Case Study of Non-Financial Firms of Pakistan Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 85346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gharghori, Philip & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert, 2009. "Default risk and equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 580-593, November.
    9. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    10. Boubaker, Sabri & Cellier, Alexis & Manita, Riadh & Saeed, Asif, 2020. "Does corporate social responsibility reduce financial distress risk?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 835-851.
    11. Howard Chan & Robert Faff & Paul Kofman, 2011. "Is default risk priced in Australian equity? Exploring the role of the business cycle," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(2), pages 217-246, August.
    12. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2010. "A resolution of the distress risk and leverage puzzles in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 56-79, April.
    13. Yinxia G. Nielsen , Caren, 2013. "Is Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns?," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2013/2, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    14. B Korcan Ak & Patricia M Dechow & Yuan Sun & Annika Yu Wang, 2013. "The use of financial ratio models to help investors predict and interpret significant corporate events," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 553-598, December.
    15. Nielsen, Caren Yinxia, 2011. "Hidden in the Factors? The Effect of Credit Risk on the Cross-section of Equity Returns," Working Papers 2011:38, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2016.
    16. Tanthanongsakkun Suparatana & Pitt David & Treepongkaruna Sirimon, 2009. "A Comparison of Corporate Bankruptcy Models in Australia: The Merton vs. Accounting-based Models," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-21, April.
    17. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Panayides, Photis M., 2021. "Distress risk anomaly and misvaluation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    18. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Ryan, Patricia & Wang, Tianyang, 2018. "Default prediction models: The role of forward-looking measures of returns and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 146-162.
    19. Li, Tangrong & Lin, Hui, 2021. "Credit risk and equity returns in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 588-613.
    20. Lanlan Liu & Dan Luo & Liang Han, 2019. "Default risk, state ownership and the cross-section of stock returns: evidence from China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 933-966, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thailand; stock market; default probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iker Arregui Alegria (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delunse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.