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Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman

    (University of California, Santa Cruz and National Bureau of Economic Research and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Hiro Ito

    (Portland State University)

Abstract
We examine the development of open macroeconomic policy choices among developing economies from the perspective of the powerful "trilemma" hypothesis. We construct an index of divergence of the three trilemma policy choices, and evaluate its patterns in recent decades. We find that the three dimensions of the trilemma configurations are converging towards a "middle ground" among emerging market economies, equipped with managed exchange rate flexibility, underpinned by sizable holdings of international reserves, and intermediate levels of monetary independence and financial integration. We also find emerging market economies with more converged policy choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low international reserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policy combination with a greater degree of policy divergence while this heightened output volatility effect does not apply to economies with relatively high international reserves/GDP holding.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," Working Papers 112012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:112012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impossible Trinity; International Reserves; Financial Liberalization; Exchange Rate Regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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