[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpceem/hal-01954920.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance

Author

Listed:
  • Wael Bousselmi

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique [Bruz] - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz])

  • Patrick Sentis

    (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - UM - Université de Montpellier)

  • Marc Willinger

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier)

Abstract
We examine how the Brexit announcement influenced the long-run market performance of British and European listed firms. Using daily data and a sample composed of 3,015 European listed firms (805 UK and 2,210 non-UK), we find that, over a 12-month horizon, the Brexit announcement negatively affected the long-run market performance of UK firms (regardless of their business activities) and European non-British (non-UK hereafter) firms that conduct most of their business activities within the British area. We also provide evidence that, after the Brexit announcement, analysts' earnings forecasts and the realized accounting decreased and the return volatility increased for UK firms

Suggested Citation

  • Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954920, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-01954920
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01954920
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01954920/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    3. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    4. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    5. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Shu, Haibing & Wei, K.C. John, 2017. "The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 286-310.
    6. Desai, Hemang & Jain, Prem C, 1997. "Long-Run Common Stock Returns following Stock Splits and Reverse Splits," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 409-433, July.
    7. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    8. Kurov, Alexander & Sancetta, Alessio & Strasser, Georg & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2019. "Price Drift Before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 449-479, February.
    9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    10. Boubaker, Sabri & Cellier, Alexis & Rouatbi, Wael, 2014. "The sources of shareholder wealth gains from going private transactions: The role of controlling shareholders," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-246.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    13. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    14. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    15. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    16. Schiereck, D. & Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S., 2016. "Brexit: (Not) another Lehman moment for banks?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 82881, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    17. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
    18. Davies, Ronald B. & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2018. "The heterogeneous impact of Brexit: Early indications from the FTSE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-17.
    19. Baruch, Shmuel & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2017. "Informed trading and price discovery before corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 561-588.
    20. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    21. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    22. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    23. Kothari, S. P. & Warner, Jerold B., 1997. "Measuring long-horizon security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 301-339, March.
    24. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    25. Chan, Yue-cheong & John Wei, K. C., 1996. "Political risk and stock price volatility: The case of Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 259-275, July.
    26. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    27. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    28. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2013. "Financial Market Shocks and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2687-2717.
    29. Yi Liu & Samuel H. Szewczyk & Zaher Zantout, 2008. "Underreaction to Dividend Reductions and Omissions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 987-1020, April.
    30. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    31. Tielmann, A. & Schiereck, D., 2016. "Arising borders and the value of logistic companies: Evidence from the Brexit referendum in Great Britain," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 84305, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    32. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    33. Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz & Podgórski, Błażej, 2017. "The distant echo of Brexit: Did exporters suffer the most?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 132-139.
    34. Kent D. Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 921-965, June.
    35. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
    36. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    37. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    38. Spiess, D. Katherine & Affleck-Graves, John, 1995. "Underperformance in long-run stock returns following seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 243-267, July.
    39. Ke WU & Spencer WHEATLEY & Didier SORNETTE, 2017. "The British Pound on Brexit night: a natural experiment of market efficiency and real-time predictability," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
    40. Auld, Tom & Linton, Oliver, 2019. "The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 371-389.
    41. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef, 1993. "Corporate Governance through the Proxy Contest: Evidence and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 405-435, July.
    42. Oehler, Andreas & Horn, Matthias & Wendt, Stefan, 2017. "Brexit: Short-term stock price effects and the impact of firm-level internationalization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 175-181.
    43. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, February.
    44. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
    45. Laurent Fresard, 2010. "Financial Strength and Product Market Behavior: The Real Effects of Corporate Cash Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1097-1122, June.
    46. Bernhard,William & Leblang,David, 2006. "Democratic Processes and Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521861229, September.
    47. Eugene F. Fama, 2014. "Two Pillars of Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1467-1485, June.
    48. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    49. Bernhard,William & Leblang,David, 2006. "Democratic Processes and Financial Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521678384, September.
    50. Cusatis, Patrick J. & Miles, James A. & Woolridge, J. Randall, 1993. "Restructuring through spinoffs*1: The stock market evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 293-311, June.
    51. Chuck C Y Kwok & LeRoy D Brooks, 1990. "Examining Event Study Methodologies in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 21(2), pages 189-224, June.
    52. Laurent Fresard, 2010. "Financial Strength and Product Market Behavior: The Real Effects of Corporate Cash Holdings," Post-Print hal-00537081, HAL.
    53. Agrawal, Anup & Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon N, 1992. "The Post-merger Performance of Acquiring Firms: A Re-examination of an Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1605-1621, September.
    54. Vikash Ramiah & Huy N. A. Pham & Imad Moosa, 2017. "The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(26), pages 2508-2514, June.
    55. Dharan, Bala G & Ikenberry, David L, 1995. "The Long-Run Negative Drift of Post-listing Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1547-1574, December.
    56. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    57. Schiereck, Dirk & Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha, 2016. "Brexit: (Not) another Lehman moment for banks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 291-297.
    58. Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 127-142.
    59. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-657, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Filletti, 2020. "Investigating the influence Brexit had on Financial Markets, in particular the GBP/EUR exchange rate," Papers 2003.05895, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cowan, Arnold R. & Sergeant, Anne M. A., 2001. "Interacting biases, non-normal return distributions and the performance of tests for long-horizon event studies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 741-765, April.
    2. Brav, Alon & Geczy, Christopher & Gompers, Paul A., 2000. "Is the abnormal return following equity issuances anomalous?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 209-249, May.
    3. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    4. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    5. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
    6. Choudhry, Taufiq & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2012. "Comparison of efficiency characteristics between the banking sectors of US and UK during the global financial crisis of 2007–2011," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 106-116.
    7. Mohamed Albaity & Diana Syafiza Said, 2016. "Impact of Open-Market Share Repurchases on Long-Term Stock Returns," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, October.
    8. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Wang, Yanzhi, 2012. "Financial constraints and share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 311-331.
    9. Spiess, D. Katherine & Affleck-Graves, John, 1999. "The long-run performance of stock returns following debt offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 45-73, October.
    10. Benzoni, Luca & Schenone, Carola, 2010. "Conflict of interest and certification in the U.S. IPO market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-254, April.
    11. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Shu, Haibing & Wei, K.C. John, 2017. "The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 286-310.
    12. Luo, Yan & Zhang, Chenyang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Choudhry, Taufiq & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2014. "Market efficiency during the global financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 299-318.
    14. José Emilio Farinós, 2001. "Rendimientos anormales de las OPV en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 25(2), pages 417-437, May.
    15. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    16. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Zhang, Feng, 2013. "Firm characteristics and long-run stock returns after corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 83-102.
    17. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo, 2007. "Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2673-2694, September.
    18. Lizińska Joanna & Czapiewski Leszek, 2019. "Long-Term Equity Performance in Poland – Searching for Answers with the Calendar-Time Portfolio Approach," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 43-55, June.
    19. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Saffar, Walid & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "How economic policy uncertainty affects the cost of raising equity capital: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    20. Rungmaitree, Pattamon & Boateng, Agyenim & Ahiabor, Frederick & Lu, Qinye, 2022. "Political risk, hedge fund strategies, and returns: Evidence from G7 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; buy-and-hold; event study; financial market; macroeconomic news;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-01954920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laurent Garnier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lamplfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.