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Optimal Use of a Polluting Non-Renewable Resource Generating both Manageable and Catastrophic Damages

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Pierre Amigues
  • Michel Moreaux
  • Katheline Schubert

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
We consider a model with two energy sources, a non-renewable one, cheap but polluting, and a renewable one, expensive but clean, let's say coal and solar. The aim of environmental policy is to maintain atmospheric carbon concentration under a given ceiling, chosen to prevent an excessive rise of the temperature and catastrophic damages. Before the ceiling damages exist but remain small, hence manageable. We show first that costs matter a lot. Whatever abundant or rare, if solar is more expensive than coal at the ceiling, it will never be used before the end of the phase at the ceiling, when coal becomes so scarce that the ceiling will never be reached again. On the contrary, if solar is less expensive than coal at the ceiling, it may even be sufficiently cheap to be exploited before the ceiling, in which case first coal is exploited alone, next both resources are used together before, at and after the ceiling, and finally solar is exploited alone, after the exhaustion of coal. Second, the carbon shadow value is first increasing until the ceiling is reached, next decreasing during the phase at the ceiling, and finally is stabilized at a constant level after the ceiling. The initial carbon shadow cost is an increasing function of the value of the marginal damage, and a decreasing function of the ceiling. Lastly, contrary to intuition, higher marginal damages and/or a lower ceiling induce a delay in the penetration of solar and also a delay in the transition towards a totally clean energy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Amigues & Michel Moreaux & Katheline Schubert, 2011. "Optimal Use of a Polluting Non-Renewable Resource Generating both Manageable and Catastrophic Damages," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00673317, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-00673317
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    Cited by:

    1. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Lafforgue, Gilles & Moreaux, Michel, 2012. "Optimal Timing of Carbon Capture Policies Under Alternative CCS Cost Functions," TSE Working Papers 12-318, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Lafforgue, Gilles & Moreaux, Michel, 2014. "Optimal Timing of Carbon Capture and Storage Policies Under Learning-by-doing," IDEI Working Papers 824, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised May 2014.
    3. Lafforgue, Gilles & Lorang, Etienne, 2022. "Recycling under environmental, climate and resource constraints," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2013. "Optimal growth under a climate constraint," IDEI Working Papers 798, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Rémy Dullieux & Lionel Ragot & Katheline Schubert, 2011. "Carbon Tax and OPEC’s Rents Under a Ceiling Constraint," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(4), pages 798-824, December.
    6. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2013. "The atmospheric carbon resilience problem: A theoretical analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 618-636.
    7. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Lafforgue, Gilles & Moreaux, Michel, 2014. "Optimal Timing of CCS Policies under Decreasing Returns to Scale," TSE Working Papers 14-529, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Moreaux, Michel & Amigues, Jean-Pierre & van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2024. "Carbon capture: Storage vs. Utilization," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Jean-François Fagnart & Marc Germain & Benjamin Peeters, 2020. "Can the Energy Transition Be Smooth? A General Equilibrium Approach to the EROEI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, February.
    10. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Lafforgue, Gilles & Moreaux, Michel, 2016. "Optimal timing of carbon capture policies under learning-by-doing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 20-37.
    11. Jean-Pierre Amigues & Gilles Lafforgue & Michel Moreaux, 2014. "Optimal Timing of CCS Policies with Heterogeneous Energy Consumption Sectors," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(3), pages 345-366, March.
    12. Aznar-Márquez, J. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2017. "Sustainable growth and environmental catastrophes," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 83-91.
    13. Jean-François Fagnart & Marc Germain, 2015. "Can the Energy Transition Be Smooth?," Working Papers 2015.04, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    14. Germain, Marc, 2020. "Limits to growth and structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 204-221.
    15. Thomas Eichner & Gilbert Kollenbach & Mark Schopf, 2023. "Demand- Versus Supply-Side Climate Policies with a Carbon Dioxide Ceiling," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1371-1406.
    16. Marc Germain, 2020. "Limits to growth and structural change," Post-Print hal-03129992, HAL.

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