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European energy efficiency and decarbonization strategies beyond 2030 : A sectoral multi-model decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Hannah Förster

    (Oko-Institut e.V.)

  • Katja Schumacher

    (Oko-Institut e.V.)

  • Enrica de Cian

    (FEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Michael Hübler

    (Centre for European Economic Research (Mannheim, Germany) - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - Universität Mannheim)

  • Ilkka Keppo

    (UCL Energy Institute - UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Silvana Mima

    (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ronald D. Sands

    (Economic Research Service - US Departement of Agriculture)

Abstract
Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects : affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.

Suggested Citation

  • Hannah Förster & Katja Schumacher & Enrica de Cian & Michael Hübler & Ilkka Keppo & Silvana Mima & Ronald D. Sands, 2013. "European energy efficiency and decarbonization strategies beyond 2030 : A sectoral multi-model decomposition," Post-Print halshs-00939253, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00939253
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400058
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00939253v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrica De Cian & Ilkka Keppo & Johannes Bollen & Samuel Carrara & Hannah Förster & Michael Hübler & Amit Kanudia & Sergey Paltsev & Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher, 2013. "European-Led Climate Policy Versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications On Trade, Technology, And Energy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-28.
    2. Spencer, Thomas & Pierfederici, Roberta & Sartor, Oliver & Berghmans, Nicolas & Samadi, Sascha & Fischedick, Manfred & Knoop, Katharina & Pye, Steve & Criqui, Patrick & Mathy, Sandrine & Capros, Pante, 2017. "Tracking sectoral progress in the deep decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 509-517.
    3. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    4. Mathy, Sandrine & Menanteau, Philippe & Criqui, Patrick, 2018. "After the Paris Agreement: Measuring the Global Decarbonization Wedges From National Energy Scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 273-289.
    5. Ang, B.W., 2015. "LMDI decomposition approach: A guide for implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 233-238.
    6. Siala, Kais & Mier, Mathias & Schmidt, Lukas & Torralba-Díaz, Laura & Sheykhha, Siamak & Savvidis, Georgios, 2022. "Which model features matter? An experimental approach to evaluate power market modeling choices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    7. Isik, Mine & Ari, Izzet & Sarica, Kemal, 2021. "Challenges in the CO2 emissions of the Turkish power sector: Evidence from a two-level decomposition approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Liu, Bingquan & Shi, Junxue & Wang, Hui & Su, Xuelin & Zhou, Peng, 2019. "Driving factors of carbon emissions in China: A joint decomposition approach based on meta-frontier," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    9. Marcucci, Adriana & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2015. "Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-124.
    10. Sandrine Mathy & P. Menanteau, 2020. "Mitigation strategies to enhance the ambition of the nationally determined contributions : an analysis of 4 European countries with the decarbonization wedges methodology," Post-Print hal-03190845, HAL.
    11. Baležentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2017. "Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 862-871.
    12. Goh, Tian & Ang, B.W., 2018. "Quantifying CO2 emission reductions from renewables and nuclear energy – Some paradoxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 651-662.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decomposition analysis; decarbonization; model intercomparison;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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