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Growth without Expectations:The Original Sin of Neoclassical Growth Models

Author

Listed:
  • Michaël Assous

    (Université Lyon 2, CNRS, Triangle)

  • Muriel Dal Pont Legrand

    (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)

Abstract
Early developments of growth theory are seen widely as the result of a two-step process – the first represented by Harrod's Essay in Dynaamic Theory, and the second by Solow's 1956 model. Harrod is considered to be the first to highlight the pervasive instability in macrodynamics, which Solow showed disappeared with the inclusion of flexible-coefficient production functions. It has been recognized since that this is a misreading (Besomi 1995, 1998, Bruno and Dal-Pont Legrand 2014). Hoover and Halsmayer (2016) examined how this "culture of misunderstanding" guided both Solow's modelling work and his reading of Harrod. Our paper pays attention to the specific issue of the introduction of an (independent) investment function in those early growth models. Using new archival material, we examine this complex issue and show how macroeconomists of that period dealt with problems related to incorporating expectations, an a priori unavoidable step in order to build robust investment functions. Those elements were indeed discussed at length, in the early 1960s, by economists such as Sen, Samuelson and Solow as shown in his correspondence with Hahn. Our paper sheds light on some hidden foundations of growth models and examines the nature of the break Solow’s model introduced in the growth research program as initially defined by Harrod.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaël Assous & Muriel Dal Pont Legrand, 2018. "Growth without Expectations:The Original Sin of Neoclassical Growth Models," GREDEG Working Papers 2018-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2018-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniele Besomi (ed.), 2003. "The Collected Interwar Papers and Correspondence of Roy Harrod," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 3068.
    2. Olivier Bruno & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2014. "The instability principle revisited: an essay in Harrodian dynamics," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 467-484, June.
    3. Michael Assous, 2013. "Solow's Struggle with Medium-Run Macroeconomics: 1956-1995," Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series 2013-17, Center for the History of Political Economy.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Arena,Richard & Porta,Pier Luigi (ed.), 2012. "Structural Dynamics and Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107015968, September.
    6. James Tobin, 1955. "A Dynamic Aggregative Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 103-103.
    7. Mauro Boianovsky & Kevin D. Hoover, 2014. "In the Kingdom of Solovia: The Rise of Growth Economics at MIT, 1956-70," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 198-228, Supplemen.
    8. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    9. Olivier Bruno & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2012. "The Instability Principle Revisited: An essay in Harrodian Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00723878, HAL.
    10. Solow, Robert M, 1988. "Growth Theory and After," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 307-317, June.
    11. Verena Halsmayer & Kevin D. Hoover, 2016. "Solow's Harrod: Transforming macroeconomic dynamics into a model of long-run growth," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 561-596, August.
    12. Mauro Boianovsky & Kevin D. Hoover, 2009. "The Neoclassical Growth Model and Twentieth-Century Economics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 1-23, Supplemen.
    13. F. H. Hahn, 1960. "The Stability of Growth Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 74(2), pages 206-226.
    14. Daniele Besomi, 2000. "On the Spread of an Idea: The Strange Case of Mr. Harrod and the Multiplier," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 347-380, Summer.
    15. Yoshida, Hiroyuki, 1999. "Harrod's Knife-Edge Reconsidered: An Application of the Hopf Bifurcation Theorem and Numerical Simulations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 537-562, July.
    16. Michaël Assous & Olivier Bruno & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2015. "The Law of Diminishing Elasticity of Demand in Harrod’s Trade Cycle (1936)," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-02, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    17. Trevor W. Swan, 1964. "Growth Models: Of Golden Ages and Production Functions," International Economic Association Series, in: Kenneth Berrill (ed.), Economic Development with Special Reference to East Asia, chapter 0, pages 3-18, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michaël Assous & Olivier Bruno & Vincent Carret & Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand, 2021. "Expectations and full employment. Hansen, Samuelson and Lange," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 511-530.
    2. Michaël Assous & Muriel Dal Pont Legrand & Sonia Manseri, 2020. "Samuelson's Neoclassical Synthesis in the Context of Growth Economics, 1956-1967," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-12, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Mohamed Noureldin Sayed & Ghada H. Ashour & Nesrin A. Abbas, 2021. "The Impact of the Volatility in Oil Prices on Saudi Arabia s and Algeria s Military Expenditure: A Comparative Study," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 180-190.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : growth; expectations; investment function; (in-)stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B2 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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