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Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas, Timothy S.
  • Dorosh, Paul A.
  • Robertson, Richard D.
Abstract
We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Timothy S. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robertson, Richard D., 2019. "Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 130, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:esspwp:130
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    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133104/filename/133315.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmidt, Emily & Thomas, Timothy S., 2018. "Cropland expansion in Ethiopia: Economic and climatic considerations for highland agriculture," ESSP working papers 127, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Kim, Ungtae & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports 53025, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Kim, U. & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports H041713, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmoré, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold, 2013. "West african agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis:," Issue briefs 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Emily Schmidt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2017. "Determinants and impact of sustainable land management (SLM) investments: A systems evaluation in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(5), pages 613-627, September.
    6. Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, August.
    7. Moges B. Wagena & Andrew Sommerlot & Anteneh Z. Abiy & Amy S. Collick & Simon Langan & Daniel R. Fuka & Zachary M. Easton, 2016. "Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 229-243, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meron Tadesse & Belay Simane & Wuletawu Abera & Lulseged Tamene & Gebermedihin Ambaw & John W. Recha & Kindu Mekonnen & Getamesay Demeke & Abebe Nigussie & Dawit Solomon, 2021. "The Effect of Climate-Smart Agriculture on Soil Fertility, Crop Yield, and Soil Carbon in Southern Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-11, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; climate change; yields; maize; wheat; sorghum; mathematical models;
    All these keywords.

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