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Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Glover
  • Jonathan Heathcote
  • Dirk Krueger
Abstract
In this paper, we ask how to best allocate a given time-varying supply of vaccines across individuals of different ages during the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic . Building on our previous heterogeneous household model of optimal economic mitigation and redistribution (Glover et al., 2021), we contrast the actual vaccine deployment path, which prioritized older, retired individuals, with one that first vaccinates younger workers. Vaccinating the old first saves more lives but slows the economic recovery, relative to inoculating the young first. Vaccines deliver large welfare benefits in both scenarios (relative to a world without vaccines), but the old-first policy is optimal under a utilitarian social welfare function. The welfare gains from having vaccinated the old first are especially significant once the economy is hit by a more infectious Delta variant in the summer of 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger, 2022. "Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic," Staff Report 636, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:93646
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.636
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaccard, Ivan, 2022. "The trade-off between public health and the economy in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2690, European Central Bank.
    2. Davids, Allan & du Rand, Gideon & Georg, Co-Pierre & Koziol, Tina & Schasfoort, Joeri, 2023. "Social learning in a network model of Covid-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 271-304.
    3. Peng, Tao & Chan , Ying Tung & Minetti, Raoul, 2023. "The Macroeconomics of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Case of China," Working Papers 2023-2, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    5. Luca Gori & Piero Manfredi & Simone Marsiglio & Mauro Sodini, 2023. "A parsimonious model of optimal social distancing and vaccination during an outbreak," Discussion Papers 2023/292, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Brotherhood, Luiz & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Vaccines and variants: A comment on “optimal age-based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2024. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Boppart, Timo & Harmenberg, Karl & Krusell, Per & Olsson, Jonna, 2022. "Integrated epi-econ assessment of vaccination," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Vaccination paths;

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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