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Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: a quantitative exploration

Author

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  • Finn E. Kydland
  • Carlos E. Zarazaga
Abstract
The U.S. economy isn' t recovering from the deep Great Recession of 2008?2009 with the strength predicted by models that incorporate a variety of shocks and frictions in the basic analytical framework of the neoclassical growth model. It has been argued that the counterfactual predictions shouldn 't be attributed to inherent features of that framework, but to the omission from the analysis of the prospects of an imminent switch to a higher taxes regime prompted by the unprecedented fiscal challenges faced by the U.S. economy in peacetime. The paper explores quantitatively this fiscal sentiment hypothesis. The main finding is that the hypothesis can account for a substantial fraction of the decline in investment and labor input in the aftermath of the Great Recession, relative to their pre-recession trends. These results require, however, a quali cation: The perceived higher taxes must fall almost exclusively on capital income.

Suggested Citation

  • Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2013. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: a quantitative exploration," Working Papers 1301, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1301
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1301
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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Ruiyang & Zarazaga, Carlos E., 2018. "Fiscal stabilization and the credibility of the U.S. budget sequestration spending austerity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Gomme, Paul, 2019. "Debt hangover in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 107-133.
    3. Rodrigo A. Cerda & José Tomás Valente, 2022. "The role of capital taxation on the business cycle: the case of Chile, 1960–2019," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 83-108, February.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining theSlowU.S.Recovery: 2010'2017," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2124, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Troy Davig & Andrew Foerster, 2019. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
    6. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
    7. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 184-194, October.
    9. Timothy Betts & Patrice M. Buzzanell, 2022. "Enacting Economic Resilience: A Synthesis of Economic and Communication Frameworks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E.J.M., 2016. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 109-125.
    11. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2013. "The prospect of higher taxes and weak job growth during the recovery from the great recession: macro versus micro Frisch elasticities," Working Papers 1302, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Lambe, Brendan & Li, Zhiyong & Qin, Weiping, 2022. "Uncertain times and the insider perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2014. "Macroelasticities and the U.S. sequestration budget cuts," Working Papers 1412, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2021. "Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp691, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Matthew Knowles, 2023. "Capital Deaccumulation and the Large Persistent Effects of Financial Crises," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 218, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    16. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.

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