[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/416.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the debt crisis or the oil price decline cause Mexico's investment collapse?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew M. Warner
Abstract
This paper proposes a simple investment model that permits a test of the relative importance of Mexico's terms of trade decline, the reversal in net capital inflows, and the debt overhang, in explaining Mexico's investment decline in the early 1980's. The paper uses previously unexploited sectoral investment data between 1981 and 1985 to estimate the quantitative importance of these explanations. The data indicate that the main microeconomic mechanism driving the investment decline was the rise in the relative price of investment goods and further that the deterioration in Mexico's international terms of trade explains most of the increase in this relative price. Our preferred estimate is that about two-thirds of the investment decline was attributable to the terms of trade decline, while the termination of capital inflows explains the remaining third. The paper finds little evidence in favor of other debt crisis effects such as the debt-overhang effect or several other more subtle effects that have been proposed in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. Warner, 1991. "Did the debt crisis or the oil price decline cause Mexico's investment collapse?," International Finance Discussion Papers 416, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1991/416/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1991/416/ifdp416.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    2. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    3. Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Voluntary Debt Reduction: Incentives and Welfare," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 580-611, September.
    4. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-475, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oks, Daniel F., 1992. "Stabilization and growth recovery in Mexico : lessons and dilemmas," Policy Research Working Paper Series 833, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
    2. William J. Luther, 2022. "Regulatory ambiguity in the market for bitcoin," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Revelli, Federico, 2019. "The electoral migration cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 461-482.
    4. Azimli, Asil, 2022. "The impact of policy, political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    5. Canes-Wrone, Brandice & Park, Jee-Kwang, 2010. "Electoral Business Cycles in OECD Countries," Papers 9-12-2010a, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
    6. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lando, Henrik & Nielsen, Michael Teit, 1998. "Flexibility and uncertainty in the housing market1," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 419-431, December.
    8. Jackie Krafft & Isabelle Nicolaï, 1995. "Commitment Procedures In R&D Investments : An Examination Of Different Varieties," Post-Print hal-01799270, HAL.
    9. Azzimonti, Marina, 2019. "Does partisan conflict deter FDI inflows to the US?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 162-178.
    10. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
    12. Tung Nguyen & Dimitris Petmezas & Nikolaos Karampatsas, 2023. "Does Terrorism Affect Acquisitions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4134-4168, July.
    13. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & König, Philipp Johann, 2020. "Leaping into the dark: A theory of policy gambles," Discussion Papers 07/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Wadhwa, Kavita & Syamala, Sudhakara Reddy, 2023. "Are business groups different from other family firms? Evidence from corporate investments during political uncertainty," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Klaus Mohn & Petter Osmundsen, 2011. "Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4387-4401.
    16. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Uncertainty, instability, and irreversible investment : theory, evidence, and lessons for Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1722, The World Bank.
    17. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Gull, Ammar Ali & Ahsan, Tanveer & Qureshi, Muhammad Azeem & Mushtaq, Rizwan, 2023. "Striving to safeguard shareholders or maintain sustainability in periods of high uncertainty: A multi-country evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Naif Alsagr & Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor, 2020. "Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 305-314.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises - Mexico; Mexico;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.