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Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia

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Abstract
The recent financial crisis emphasised the need for effective financial stability analyses and tools for detecting systemic risk. This paper looks at assessment of banking sector resilience through stress testing. We argue such analyses are valuable even in emerging economies that suffer from limited data availability, short time series and structural breaks. We propose a top-down stress test methodology that employs relatively limited information to overcome this data problem. Moreover, as credit growth in emerging economies tends to be rather volatile, we rely on dynamic approach projecting key balance sheet items. Application of our proposed stress test framework to the Russian banking sector reveals a high sensitivity of the capital adequacy ratio to the economic cycle that shows up in both of the two-year macroeconomic scenarios considered: a baseline and an adverse one. Both scenarios indicate the need for capital increase in the Russian banking sector. Furthermore, given that Russia’s banking sector is small and fragmented relative to advanced economies, the loss of external financing can cause profound economic stress, especially for medium-sized and small enterprises. The Russian state has a low public debt-to-GDP ratio and plays decisive role in the banking sector. These factors allow sufficient fiscal space for recapitalisation of problematic banks under both of our proposed baseline and adverse scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuzana Fungáèová & Petr Jakubík, 2012. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Working Papers IES 2012/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2012_04
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    12. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
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    15. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Mr. Giovanni Majnoni & Mr. Matthew T Jones & Mr. Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2001/088, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2016. "Interdependencies between Leverage and Capital Ratios in the Central and Eastern European Banks," MPRA Paper 74560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2013. "Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 347-370.
    3. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová & Laurent Weill, 2015. "Does Bank Liquidity Creation Contribute to Economic Growth? Evidence from Russia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 479-496, July.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Karel Janda & Tran Van Quang & Pavel Zetek, 2015. "Faktory ovlivňující zapojení žen v mikrofinancích [The Factors Influencing the Participation of Women in Microfinance]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 363-381.
    8. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2016. "Interdependencies between Leverage and Capital Ratios in the Banking Sector of the Czech Republic," MPRA Paper 74457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Alesia Kalbaska, 2013. "From Sovereigns to Banks: Evidence on Cross-border Contagion (2006-2011)," Department of Economics University of Siena 680, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress testing; bank; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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