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Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Lean, H.H.
  • McAleer, M.J.
  • Wong, W.-K.
Abstract
This paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD tests show that spot dominates futures in the downside risk, while futures dominate spot in the upside profit. On the other hand, the SD findings suggest that spot dominates futures in downside risk, while futures dominate spot in upside profit. Risk-averse investors prefer investing in the spot index. Risk seekers are attracted to the futures index to maximize their expected utility but not expected wealth in the entire period, as well as for both the OPEC and Iraq War sub-periods. The SD findings show that there is no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures markets, and these markets are not rejected as being efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Lean, H.H. & McAleer, M.J. & Wong, W.-K., 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:41467
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    futurres market; mean variance; risk averter; risk seeker; spot market; stochastic dominance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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