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The welfare properties of climate targets

Author

Listed:
  • Coppens, Léo
  • Venmans, Frank
Abstract
Two approaches are predominant in climate models: cost–benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost–benefit analysis maximizes welfare, finding a trade-off between climate damages and emission abatement costs. By contrast, cost-effectiveness analysis minimizes abatement costs, omits damages but adds a climate constraint, such as a radiative forcing constraint, a temperature constraint or a cumulative emissions constraint. We analyse the impacts of these different constraints on optimal carbon prices, emissions and welfare. To do so, we fit a model with abatement costs, capital repurposing costs (stranded assets) and technological change on IPCC and NGFS scenarios. For scenarios reaching 1.5 °C in 2100, a constraint on cumulative emissions has the best welfare properties, followed by a temperature constraint with overshoot. A forcing constraint with overshoot has insufficient early abatement and large net negative emissions later on, leading to a substantial welfare loss of $23 Trillion. As to the paths reaching 2 °C, all cost-effectiveness analysis abate too late, but the welfare impact of this dynamic inefficiency is milder. Again, a forcing constraint with overshoot scores worst. We show that large negative emissions at the end of the century are never optimal and an artefact of constraints with overshoot.

Suggested Citation

  • Coppens, Léo & Venmans, Frank, 2025. "The welfare properties of climate targets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125996, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:125996
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/125996/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change mitigation; targets formulation; integrated assessment models; optimal abatement path; cost-benefit; cost-effectiveness; welfare; negative emissions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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