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Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Pierre L. Siklos
  • Martin Stefan
  • Claudia Wellenreuther
Abstract
Previous literature on price discovery in commodity markets is mainly focused on the question of whether the spot or the futures market dominates the price discovery process. Little attention, however, has been paid to the question of how the price discovery process is affected by futures speculation. Using different measures for speculation and hedging and a new price discovery metric, the present study analyzes this relationship for various agricultural commodities. On the whole, the results suggest that speculative activity reduces the level of noise in the futures markets under analysis, while increasing their relative contribution to the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & Martin Stefan & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2019. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?," CAMA Working Papers 2019-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-42
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-06/42_2019_bohl_siklos_stefan_wellenreuther.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lin Xie & Jiahua Liao & Haiting Chen & Xuefei Yan & Xinyan Hu, 2021. "Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Roberto Louis Forestal & Shih-Ming Pi, 2021. "Using Artificial Neural networks and Optimal Scaling Model to Forecast Agriculture Commodity Price: An Ecological-economic Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-3.
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    7. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Waël Louhichi, 2022. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures markets: evidence from commodity markets and NARDL framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 171-189, June.
    8. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Joëlle Miffre & Tilman Schoen & Ayesha Scott, 2023. "Do spot market auction data help price discovery?," Post-Print hal-04121327, HAL.
    9. Mukhlis MUKHLIS & Raja MASBAR & Sofyan SYAHNUR & M. Shabri Abd. MAJID, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities Between World Oil Price And Indonesia’S Cocoa Market: Evidence From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And The 2011 European Debt Crisis," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 217-233, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Markets; Futures Speculation; Price Discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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