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Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects

Author

Listed:
  • Cappariello, Rita
  • Gunnella, Vanessa
  • Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian
  • Ottaviano, Gianmarco
Abstract
Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of ’global value chains’ (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes the observed international input-output relations in due account. However, existing quantitative general equilibrium models generally assume that industry-level bilateral final and intermediate trade shares are identical, and that the allocation of imported inputs across sectors is the same as the allocation of domestic inputs. This amounts to applying two proportionality assumptions, one at the border to split final goods and inputs, and another behind the border to allocate inputs across industries. In practice, neither assumption holds in available input-output data sets. To overcome this limitation of existing models, we consider a richer input-output structure across countries and sectors that we can match with the actual structure reported in input-output tables. This allows us to investigate the relation between the effects of changes in trade policies and GVCs. When we apply the enhanced quantitative general equilibrium model to the assessment of the effects of Brexit, we find trade and welfare losses that are substantially larger than those obtained by previous models. This is due to the close integration of UK-EU production networks and implies that denser GVCs amplify the adverse effects of protectionist trade policies. JEL Classification: F13, F15, F40, F60

Suggested Citation

  • Cappariello, Rita & Gunnella, Vanessa & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 2020. "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects," Working Paper Series 2360, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202360
    Note: 2700331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2020. "Covid-19 Shocking Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8572, CESifo.
    3. Cigna, Simone & Gunnella, Vanessa & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2022. "Global value chains: measurement, trends and drivers," Occasional Paper Series 289, European Central Bank.
    4. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Yang, Yichen & Liu, Wen, 2024. "Free trade agreements and domestic value added in exports: An analysis from the network perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2021. "International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    8. Byrne, Shane & Devine, Kenneth & King, Michael & McCarthy, Yvonne & Palmer, Christopher, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Simola, Heli, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    11. L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Pilar & Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo & Geeroms, Hans & de Almeida, Ana M. & Bisciari, Patrick & Byrne, Stephen & Campos, Rodolfo & Conefrey, Thomas & Cappariello, Rita & Damjanovi, 2020. "A review of economic analyses on the potential impact of Brexit," Occasional Paper Series 249, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; supply chains; trade model; trade policy shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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