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International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector

Author

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  • Hiebert, Paul
  • Vansteenkiste, Isabel
Abstract
We empirically analyse the response of US manufacturing labour market variables to various shocks, notably to trade openness and technology. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) methodology of D¶ees, DiMauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2005) to 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1977-2003. This frame-work allows for an assessment of both shocks to weakly exogenous variables and intra-industry spillovers. In this vein, beyond a standard set of labour-market related variables (employment, real compensation, productivity and capital stock) and exogenous factors (a sector-specific measure of trade openness, along with common technology and oil price shocks), specific measures of manufacturing-wide variables are included for each sector. Generalised impulse responses indicate that increased trade openness negatively affects real compensation, has negligible employment effects and leads to higher labour productivity. These impacts, however, are relatively weaker those induced by technology shocks, with the latter positively and significantly affecting both real compensation and employment. There is also evidence of positive spill-overs across industries from sector-specific employment and productivity shocks. Impact elasticities suggest strong intra-sectoral linkages for employment and capital stock formation, contrasting with weak linkages for what concerns real compensation and productivity. JEL Classification: F16, J01, O33

Suggested Citation

  • Hiebert, Paul & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2007. "International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector," Working Paper Series 731, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007731
    Note: 339054
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    9. Balasan, Andrei-Cristian, 2012. "Literature review concerning the relationship between globalization and regionalization in the world economy," MPRA Paper 39746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ms. Yan M Sun & Mr. Frigyes F Heinz & Giang Ho, 2013. "Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/194, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    12. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Asian Economies," Discussion papers 17009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    14. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    15. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    16. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
    17. Timo Bettendorf, 2019. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the Euro: A GVAR approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 296-312, January.
    18. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
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    20. Favero, Carlo A., 2013. "Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 343-356.
    21. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Livia Chatzieleftheriou & Arsenios‐Georgios N. Prelorentzos, 2022. "Crisis and the Chinese miracle: A network—GVAR model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 900-921, July.
    22. Huidan Xue & Chenguang Li & Liming Wang & Wen-Hao Su, 2021. "Spatial Price Transmission and Price Dynamics of Global Butter Export Market under Economic Shocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.
    23. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores, 2021. "Macroeconomic and financial implications of multi‐dimensional interdependencies between OECD countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 741-776, January.
    24. Robert Anderton & Paul Hiebert, 2009. "The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 09/14, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global VAR (GVAR); impulse responses.; labour market; Technological Change; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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