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The State Dependent Impact of Bank Exposure on Sovereign Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Maximilian Podstawski
  • Anton Velinov
Abstract
The theoretical literature remains inconclusive on whether changes in bank exposure towards the domestic sovereign have an adverse effect on the sovereign risk position via a diabolic loop in the sovereign-bank nexus or reduce perceived default risk by acting as a disciplinary device for the sovereign. In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of exogenous changes in bank exposure on the risk position of the sovereign within a Markov switching structural vector autoregressive in heteroscedasticity (MSH-SVAR) framework for a set of EMU countries. We add to the methodological literature by allowing for regime dependent shock transmissions according to the volatility state of the financial system. Finding support for both, a stabilizing and a destabilizing effect, we document a clear clustering among the country sample: Rising bank exposure increased default risk for the EMU periphery, but decreased credit risk for the core EMU countries during times of financial stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Podstawski & Anton Velinov, 2016. "The State Dependent Impact of Bank Exposure on Sovereign Risk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1550, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1550
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Boeckelmann Lukas & Stalla-Bourdillon Arthur, 2021. "Structural Estimation of Time-Varying Spillovers: An Application to International Credit Risk Transmission," Working papers 798, Banque de France.
    3. Giovanni Angelini & Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Giovanni Caggiano & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Uncertainty across volatility regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, April.
    4. María J. Nieto & Dalvinder Singh, 2021. "Incentive compatible relationship between the ERM II and close cooperation in the Banking Union: the cases of Bulgaria and Croatia," Occasional Papers 2117, Banco de España.
    5. Baziki, Selva Bahar & Nieto, María J. & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2023. "Sovereign portfolio composition and bank risk: The case of European banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Christoph Große Steffen & Maximilian Podstawski, 2016. "Ambiguity and Time-Varying Risk Aversion in Sovereign Debt Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1602, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Velinov, Anton, 2018. "On the importance of testing structural identification schemes and the potential consequences of incorrectly identified models," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 106-126.
    8. José Manuel Mansilla-Fernández, 2020. "Non-Performing loans, financial stability, and banking competition: evidence for listed and non-listed Eurozone banks," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 232(1), pages 29-52, March.
    9. Gabriella CHIESA & José Manuel MANSILLA-FERNÁNDEZ, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Cost of Capital, and Lending Supply: Lessons from the Eurozone Banking Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 2018-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    10. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:4:p:115-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bierbaumer, Daniel & Rieth, Malte & Velinov, Anton, 2021. "The state-dependent trading behavior of banks in the oil futures market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1011-1024.
    12. Daniel Bierbaumer & Malte Rieth & Anton Velinov, 2018. "Nonlinear Intermediary Pricing in the Oil Futures Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1722, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Velinov, Anton, 2016. "On the importance of testing structural identification schemes and the potential consequences of incorrectly identified models," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145581, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Giovanni Angelini & Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Giovanni Caggiano & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Uncertainty across volatility regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, April.
    16. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching; heteroscedasticity; identification; sovereign-bank interlinkages; sovereign risk; credit default swap; contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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