[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dia/wpaper/dt200408.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with urban transition theory

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bocquier

    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

Abstract
(english) This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of urban transition is used as an alternative hypothesis for projections. Alternative projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusions are that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania. _________________________________ (français) Cet article se propose d’examiner d’une manière critique les projections urbaines des Nations Unies. Les estimations des tendances récentes basées sur les données nationales sont évaluées, de même que la méthode de projection. La théorie de la transition urbaine est utilisée comme une alternative pour les projections. Des projections alternatives sont proposées sur la base d’un modèle polynomial et sont comparées à celle des NU, qui sont fondées sur un modèle linéaire. Les conclusions sont que les projections des NU pourraient surestimer de près d’un milliard la population urbaine en 2030, soit 19% en terme relatif. La surestimation serait particulièrement plus prononcée pour les pays en développement et pourrait excéder 30% en Afrique, en Inde et en Océanie.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bocquier, 2004. "World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with urban transition theory," Working Papers DT/2004/08, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200408
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dial.ird.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2004-08.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Mason-DCroz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Methodology," IFPRI book chapters, in: Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmore, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold (ed.), West African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 2, pages 37-52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adama Zerbo, 2006. "Marché du travail urbain et pauvreté en Afrique subsaharienne : un modèle d’analyse," Documents de travail 129, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    2. Neil Brenner & Christian Schmid, 2014. "The ‘Urban Age’ in Question," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 731-755, May.
    3. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen & Prem Sangraula, 2007. "New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 667-701, December.
    4. Etebong PC, 2018. "Demography in Nigeria: Problems and Prospects," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 5(1), pages 25-30, February.
    5. Charlotte Guénard & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2004. "Measuring inequalities: Do the surveys give the real picture? Study of two surveys in Cote d’Ivoire and Madagascar," Working Papers DT/2004/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Dec 2004.
    6. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    7. Yeboah, F. Kwame & Jayne, T.S., 2016. "Africa’S Evolving Employment Structure," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259511, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    8. Headey, Derek & Bezemer, Dirk & Hazell, Peter B., 2008. "Agricultural exit problems: Causes and consequences," IFPRI discussion papers 802, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4459 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9ocq36eaai is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhen Yang & Jun Lei & Jian-Gang Li, 2019. "Identifying the Determinants of Urbanization in Prefecture-Level Cities in China: A Quantitative Analysis Based on Spatial Production Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Dusan Paredes Araya & Tomothy M Komarek, 2013. "Spatial Income Inequality in Chile and the Rol of Spatial Labor Sorting," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 46, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    4. Yan Yan & Hui Liu & Ningcheng Wang & Shenjun Yao, 2021. "How Does Low-Density Urbanization Reduce the Financial Sustainability of Chinese Cities? A Debt Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Guangliang Yang & Lixing Li & Shihe Fu, 2020. "Do rural migrants benefit from labor market agglomeration economies? Evidence from Chinese cities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 910-931, September.
    6. José Renato Barandier & Milena Bodmer & Izabella Lentino, 2017. "Evidence of the impacts of the national housing programme on the accessibility of the low‐income population in Rio de Janeiro," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 105-118, May.
    7. Dasgupta, Basab & Lall, Somik V. & Lozano-Gracia, Nancy, 2014. "Urbanization and housing investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7110, The World Bank.
    8. Poelhekke, Steven, 2011. "Urban growth and uninsured rural risk: Booming towns in bust times," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 461-475, November.
    9. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015. "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Richard Bluhm & Christian Lessmann & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "The Political Geography of Cities," SoDa Laboratories Working Paper Series 2021-11, Monash University, SoDa Laboratories.
    11. Michel DIMOU, 2008. "Urbanisation, Agglomeration Effects And Regional Inequality : An Introduction," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 7-12.
    12. Steven Poelhekke & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2008. "Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and Urban Concentrations: Unbundling Spatial Lags," CESifo Working Paper Series 2474, CESifo.
    13. Fabien Candau & Elisa Dienesch, 2013. "Does Globalization explain Urbanization in the World and in Asia?," Working papers of CATT hal-01847940, HAL.
    14. Gao, Ming & Gu, Qiankun & He, Shijun, 2022. "Place-based policies, administrative hierarchy, and city growth: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    16. Yueyan Dong & Nannan Yu & Tao Hong & Jinxing Yue, 2022. "City Administrative Level and Tertiary Educational Opportunities: Evidence From China’s Higher Education Expansion Policy," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    17. Gordon Anderson & Ying Ge, 2004. "Do Economic Reforms Accelerate Urban Growth? The Case of China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 41(11), pages 2197-2210, October.
    18. Christian Düben & Melanie Krause, 2021. "Population, light, and the size distribution of cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 189-211, January.
    19. Jedwab, Remi & Christiaensen, Luc & Gindelsky, Marina, 2017. "Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and…urban push?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 6-16.
    20. Margherita Comola & Luiz de Mello, 2010. "Fiscal Decentralization and Urbanization in Indonesia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-058, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4eh5eurum690ur8datvh2sb4g9 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Kristian Behrens & Alain Pholo Bala, 2013. "Do rent-seeking and interregional transfers contribute to urban primacy in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(1), pages 163-195, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    urbanisation; projections; transition urbaine; modèle; pauvreté; environnement; pays en développement; pays développés; urban transition; model; poverty; environment; developing countries; developed countries.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Loic Le Pezennec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.