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Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Honkapohja, Seppo
  • Evans, George W.
Abstract
We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks pushing interest rates to the zero lower bound, temporary increases in government spending can be used to insulate the economy from deflation traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7397
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    as
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    8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2009. "Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 930-953, October.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrizio Venditti, 2010. "Down the non-linear road from oil to consumer energy prices: no much asymmetry along the way," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    4. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive learning; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Zero interest rate lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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