[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/4248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Old Sins: Exchange Rate Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century

Author

Listed:
  • Flandreau, Marc
  • Sussman, Nathan
Abstract
This Paper challenges a popular explanation for ?original sin? - the default prone borrowing of long term debt in foreign exchange by emerging markets - that emphasizes the lack of credibility and commitment of governments that prevents them from borrowing in their own currency. Basing our account on the history of emerging market borrowing in the nineteenth century, we offer an explanation based on historical path dependence. We document that almost all IPO?s of governments in foreign markets were in foreign exchange, or with foreign exchange clauses, independent of those countries? institutional features. We show that a small number of countries could circulate debt denominated in their own currency in secondary markets, again irrespective of their constitutional set-up. We argue that market liquidity can explain both phenomena. Having an internationally circulating currency allows countries to circulate their debt in secondary markets. Going for an IPO in a large financial centre is an attempt to tap the greater liquidity of that centre?s money market and currency. It makes perfect sense to borrow then, in that centre?s currency. The evolution of vehicle currencies and liquid money markets has more to do with historical evolution of trade, going back to medieval times, rather than with institutional reform. Escaping from original sin requires that the country emerge as a leading economic power - a rare historical event, reserved for the US of the nineteenth century and Japan of the twentieth century.

Suggested Citation

  • Flandreau, Marc & Sussman, Nathan, 2004. "Old Sins: Exchange Rate Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 4248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP4248
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Flandreau, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865-1871," Post-Print hal-03416539, HAL.
    2. Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870–1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 862-897, December.
    3. Marc Flandreau, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865-1871," Post-Print hal-03416540, HAL.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Eugene N. White, 1990. "British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars," NBER Working Papers 3517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Oppers, Stefan E., 1993. "The Interest Rate Effect of Dutch Money in Eighteenth-Century Britain," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 25-43, March.
    6. Elise S. Brezis, 1995. "Foreign capital flows in the century of Britain's industrial revolution: new estimates, controlled conjectures," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 48(1), pages 46-67, February.
    7. Bordo, Michael D. & White, Eugene N., 1991. "A Tale of Two Currencies: British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 303-316, June.
    8. Sussman, Nathan & Yafeh, Yishay, 2000. "Institutions, Reforms, and Country Risk: Lessons from Japanese Government Debt in the Meiji Era," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 442-467, June.
    9. Flandreau, Marc R, 2002. ""Water Seeks a Level": Modeling Bimetallic Exchange Rates and the Bimetallic Band," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 491-519, May.
    10. Marc Flandreau, 2002. "'Water Seeks a Level”: Modeling Bimetallic Exchange Rates and the Bimetallic Band," Post-Print hal-03416703, HAL.
    11. Flandreau, Marc, 2000. "The economics and politics of monetary unions: a reassessment of the Latin Monetary Union, 1865–71," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 25-44, April.
    12. Neal, Larry, 2000. "How it all began: the monetary and financial architecture of Europe during the first global capital markets, 1648 1815," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 117-140, October.
    13. Marc Flandreau, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-1880," Post-Print hal-03416270, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Flandreau & Nathan Sussman, 2004. "Old sins. Exchange Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century," Working Papers hal-01065494, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/324 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/324 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/324 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/324 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    7. Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. "A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July.
    8. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the Latin Monetary Union [Bilateral treaties and the most-favored-nation clause: the myth of trade liberalization in the nineteenth cent," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(3), pages 322-348.
    9. Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "The Drachma, Foreign Creditors and the International Monetary System: Tales of a Currency during the 19th and the Early 20th Century," Working Papers 16, Bank of Greece.
    10. Marc Flandreau, Kim Oosterlinck, 2011. "Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities," IHEID Working Papers 01-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Esteves, Rui Pedro & Reis, Jaime & Ferramosca, Fabiano, 2009. "Market Integration in the Golden Periphery. The Lisbon/London Exchange, 1854-1891," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 324-345, July.
    12. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April.
    13. Rita Martins de Sousa, 2019. "Portugal adoption of the gold standard: political reasons for a monetary choice (1846-1854)," Working Papers GHES - Office of Economic and Social History 2019/64, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, GHES - Social and Economic History Research Unit, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," NBER Working Papers 12299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.
    17. Rahman, Ahmed S., 2010. "Fighting the forces of gravity - Seapower and maritime trade between the 18th and 20th centuries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 28-48, January.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/670 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/670 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chiaruttini, Maria Stella, 2020. "Banking integration and (under)development: A quantitative reassessment of the Italian financial divide (1814-74)," IBF Paper Series 03-20, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    22. Flandreau, Marc & Accominotti, Olivier, 2005. "Does Bilateralism Promote Trade? Nineteenth Century Liberalization Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 5423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    24. Larry Neal & Marc Weidenmier, 2002. "Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Sui Generis EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 303, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    26. Flandreau, Marc, 2006. "The logic of compromise: Monetary bargaining in Austria-Hungary, 1867–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 3-33, April.
    27. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/603 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    N32; Original sin; Exchange clauses; Sovereign debt; Key currencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.