[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3378.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin, Philippe
  • Rey, Hélène
Abstract
We analyse the impact of financial globalization on asset prices, investment and the possibility of crashes driven by self-fulfilling expectations in emerging markets. In a two-country model with one emerging market (intermediate income level) and one industrialized country (high income level), we show that symmetric liberalization of capital outflows and inflows increases asset prices, investment and income in the emerging market. For intermediate levels of international financial transaction costs, however, we find that pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling, leading to a financial crash. The crash is accompanied by capital flight, a drop in income and investment below the financial autarky level and more market incompleteness. We show that emerging markets are more prone to such a financial crash simply because they have a lower income level and not because of the existence of market failures (moral hazard or credit constraints), bad monetary policies or exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP3378
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-1075, December.
    2. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    4. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-103, February.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2002. "Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon," NBER Working Papers 9286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    9. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    10. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    13. Qinglai Meng & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Can Capital Mobility be Destabilizing?," NBER Working Papers 7263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    16. Rene M. Stulz, 1999. "Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 7021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 19-38, Autumn.
    18. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    19. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    20. Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?," NBER Working Papers 8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "The flotation of companies on the stock market : A coordination failure model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1101-1125, June.
    22. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans A., 2005. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 583-613, December.
    23. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    24. Mr. Marco Rossi, 1999. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies: Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1999/066, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2000. "Financial Market Globalization and Endogenous Inequality of Nations," Discussion Papers 1300, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    29. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "Fundamental Determinants of the Asian Crisis: The Role of Financial Fragility and External Imbalances," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 11-41, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    31. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1998. "Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility," IMF Working Papers 1998/083, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    34. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    35. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization: Allocative Efficiency or Animal Spirits?," NBER Working Papers 8908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    37. David J. Mckenzie, 2001. "The Impact of Capital Controls on Growth Convergence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 1-25, June.
    38. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    39. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
    41. Frank de Jong & Frans A. de Roon, 2001. "Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-113/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Philippe Martin & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," SciencePo Working papers hal-01021349, HAL.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization Growth and Crises," UCLA Economics Working Papers 834, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth and Financial Crises (October 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 276, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Singh, Ajit, 1994. "How did East Asia grow so fast? Slow progress towards an analytical consensus," MPRA Paper 53435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Winston Moore, 2014. "Managing The Process Of Removing Capital Controls: What Does The Literature Suggest?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 209-237, April.
    13. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    14. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis - The Case of Central Eastern European Countries," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1140, International Trade and Finance Association.
    15. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Vesperoni, Esteban, 2006. "Financial globalization and debt maturity in emerging economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 183-207, February.
    16. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
    17. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197.
    18. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    19. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann (ed.), 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles and Financial Liberalization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262201599, April.
    20. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    21. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 1-112.
    23. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    24. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial globalization; Emerging markets; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.