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The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Thoenig, Mathias
  • Buggle, Johannes
  • Mayer, Thierry
  • Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan
Abstract
We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of almost the entire Jewish community living in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history in order to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (in 1935) would have led to a 28% increase in Jewish migration out of Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Thoenig, Mathias & Buggle, Johannes & Mayer, Thierry & Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan, 2020. "The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 15533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15533
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    3. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?," Working Papers DT/2021/04, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    5. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9288, CESifo.
    6. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    7. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    8. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2023. "Kinder, Küche und Kirche, Family policies and fertility in the Third Reich," Working Papers 2023-iFlame-04, IESEG School of Management.
    9. Michelle Hansch & Jan Nimczik & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2024. "Workplace Connections and Labor Migration: The Role of Information in Shaping Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 490, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Migration policy; Counterfactual history; Antisemitism; Nazi germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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