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Robots, Tasks, and Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Bastos, Paulo
  • Artuc, Erhan
  • Rijkers, Bob
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of robotization on trade patterns, wages and welfare. It develops a Ricardian model with two-stage production and trade in intermediate and final goods in which robots can take over some tasks previously performed by humans in a subset of industries. An increase in robot adoption in the North reduces the cost of production and thereby impacts trade in final and intermediate goods with the South. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and instrumental-variable regressions exploiting variation in exposure to robots across countries and sectors. Both reveal that greater robot intensity in own production leads to: (i) a rise in imports sourced from less developed countries in the same industry; and (ii) an even stronger increase in exports to those countries. Counterfactual simulations indicate that Northern robotization raises domestic welfare, but initially depresses wages. However, this adverse effect is likely to be reversed by further reductions in robot prices. Northern robotization may lead to higher wages and welfare in the South.

Suggested Citation

  • Bastos, Paulo & Artuc, Erhan & Rijkers, Bob, 2020. "Robots, Tasks, and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 14487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14487
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    Cited by:

    1. Erhan Artuc & Luc Christiaensen & Hernan Winkler, 2019. "Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico," World Bank Publications - Reports 31425, The World Bank Group.
    2. Stemmler, Henry, 2019. "Does automation lead to de-industrialization in emerging economies? Evidence from Brazil," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 382, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Weiming Zhang & Jiachao Peng & Lian Zhang, 2023. "Disruptive Displacement: The Impacts of Industrial Robots on the Energy Industry’s International Division of Labor from a Technological Complexity View," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Koch, Michael & Manuylov, Ilya, 2023. "Measuring the technological bias of robot adoption and its implications for the aggregate labor share," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    5. Bas, Maria & Fernandes, Ana & Paunov, Caroline, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    6. Derick Almeida & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2024. "Robots at work: New evidence with recent data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(6), pages 700-722, December.
    7. Sun, Wenyuan & Zhang, Zhonghui & Chen, Yang & Luan, Fushu, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of robots on employment in agriculture, industry, and services sectors," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Brambilla, Irene & César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of robots in Latin America: Evidence from local labor markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. ADACHI Daisuke, 2024. "Robots and Wage Polarization: The effects of robot capital by occupation," Discussion papers 24066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Toon Van Overbeke, 2023. "Conflict or cooperation? Exploring the relationship between cooperative institutions and robotisation," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 550-573, September.
    11. Sequeira, Tiago Neves & Garrido, Susana & Santos, Marcelo, 2021. "Robots are not always bad for employment and wages," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 108-119.
    12. Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2020. "Automation, globalisation and relative wages: An empirical analysis of winners and losers," MERIT Working Papers 2020-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Faber, Marius, 2020. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Jörg Mayer, 2021. "Development strategies for middle‐income countries in a digital world—Insights from modern trade economics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2515-2546, September.
    15. Andreas Baur & Lisandra Flach & Isabella Gourevich & Florian Unger, 2023. "North-South Trade: The Impact of Robotization," CESifo Working Paper Series 10865, CESifo.
    16. Alguacil Marí, María Teresa & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2020. "What is so special about robots and trade?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 410, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    17. Andrés César & Guillermo Falcone & Pablo Garriga, 2022. "Robots, Exports and Top Income Inequality: Evidence for the U.S," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0307, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    18. Chen, Chinchih & Frey, Carl Benedikt & Presidente, Giorgio, 2022. "Automation or globalization? The impacts of robots and Chinese imports on jobs in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 528-542.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automation; robots; Tasks; Jobs; Wages; Trade; Intermediate inputs; Global value chains; Gains from trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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