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Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • John Muellbauer
  • Janine Aron
Abstract
Without information on the market values of the main components of household wealth, it is difficult to understand the behaviour of aggregate consumer spending and of the broad money holdings of households. This paper constructs the first coherent set of aggregate personal sector wealth estimates at market value for South Africa. Our estimates derive from data published by the Reserve Bank on financial flows and various other capital market data, much of it at book value. Our methods rely, where relevant, on accumulating flow of funds data using appropriate benchmarks, and, where necessary, converting book to market values using appropriate asset price indices. The paper plots asset to income ratios for various asset classes, and by relating these to asset price movements and rates of return, throws some light on changes in the composition of personal sector wealth. The most striking changes have been the rise in pension wealth - overtaking housing wealth in the early 1990s, the rise in debt, and the relative decline of liquid assets and housing wealth since the early and mid-1980s, respectively. Areas of current ignorance are highlighted, particularly those concerning foreign assets, the unincorporated business sector and the nature of pension rights.

Suggested Citation

  • John Muellbauer & Janine Aron, 1999. "Estimates of personal sector wealth for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:1999-17
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:3dd1155e-8173-4e80-b125-ceabaeef8a17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schmidt-Hebbel, K. & Serven, L., 1997. "Saving Across the World: Puzzles and Policies," World Bank - Discussion Papers 354, World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aroop Chatterjee & Léo Czajka & Amory Gethin, 2022. "Wealth Inequality in South Africa, 1993–2017," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 19-36.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 509-544, September.
    4. James B. Davies & Susanna Sandström & Anthony Shorrocks & Edward N. Wolff, 2011. "The Level and Distribution of Global Household Wealth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 223-254, March.
    5. Aroop Chatterjee & Léo Czajka & Amory Gethin, 2020. "Estimating the Distribution of Household Wealth in South Africa," Working Papers hal-02876974, HAL.
    6. Reneéa Koekemoer, 2001. "Variable Parameter Estimation Of Consumer Price Expectations For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 1-39, March.
    7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Johan Prinsloo, 2006. "Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: South Africa 1975-2003," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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