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Efectos en el mercado de trabajo como consecuencia de la aplicación de choques específicos en la producción del sector cafetero, 2014-2020

Author

Listed:
  • Óscar Hernán Munoz Goyes
  • Jéssica Natalia Páez Cortés
Abstract
El Modelo Predictivo de Empleo para Colombia (MPEC), desarrollado por la Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT), permite construir diferentes choques en la economía que simulan los efectos que se podrían tener sobre el PIB, el empleo y el desempleo. Este ejercicio se alimenta de la matriz insumo producto, el PIB, la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares y las proyecciones de Fedesarrollo de las principales variables macroeconómicas. Para este ejercicio se simularon dos choques (escenarios extremos) en el sector café: el primero simula una expansión del sector café en el 10 %, que se traduce en un efecto de 1,1 veces sobre las exportaciones; el segundo simula una contracción del sector en el 15 %, y como consecuencia una reducción de las exportaciones en 0,8 veces. Los resultados muestran que un choque (positivo o negativo) en el sector café no incrementa sustancialmente la generación de empleo; sin embargo, un choque negativo sí afecta sustancialmente la tasa de desempleo para el ano 2020, motivo por el cual es importante analizar la pertinencia de políticas enfocadas en el sector café, identificando las condiciones institucionales necesarias para que estas logren ser efectivas. **** The Employment Projection Model for Colombia developed by International Labour Organization (ILO), let to adjust different shocks in the economy for the simulation of its effects on GDP, employment and unemployment level. This exercise is supported by information obtained from Input–Output Matrix, GDP series, Great Integrated Household Survey and Fedesarrollo’s projections for principal macroeconomic variables. For this exercise, two shocks were simulated (extreme scenarios) in coffee sector: the first one simulates growth of coffee sector in 10 % which translates into an effect of 1, 1 times on exports; the second one simulates a contraction of this sector in 15 %, and therefore a reduction on exports in 0, 8 times. The results show that a shock (positive or negative) in the coffee sector does not substantially increase the job creation; however, a negative shock has a significant effect on unemployment rate at 2020. For this reason, it is important to analyze the relevance of policies focused on the coffee sector, identifying the institutional mechanism to achieve the effectiveness of those strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Óscar Hernán Munoz Goyes & Jéssica Natalia Páez Cortés, 2014. "Efectos en el mercado de trabajo como consecuencia de la aplicación de choques específicos en la producción del sector cafetero, 2014-2020," Revista IB 12991, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística - DANE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000482:012991
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Aarón Garavito A. & Ana María Iregui & María Teresa Ramírez G., 2012. "Inversión Extranjera Directa en Colombia: Evolución reciente y marco normativo," Borradores de Economia 9655, Banco de la Republica.
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