[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1232.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Stephen P. Jenkins
Abstract
We model annual low pay transition probabilities taking account of three potentially endogenous selections: two sample drop-out mechanisms (panel attrition, non-employment) and ‘initial conditions’ (base-year low pay status). This model, and variants that ignore one or more of these selection mechanisms, are fitted to data for men from the British Household Panel Survey. Tests of the ignorability of the endogenous selection mechanisms suggest that ‘economic’ selection mechanisms such as initial conditions and retention of employment are more important than the ‘survey’ selection mechanism (attrition). However, consistent with related US research, relatively simple models provide estimates of covariate effects that differ little from the estimates from the complicated models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling Low Pay Transition Probabilities, Accounting for Panel Attrition, Non-Response, and Initial Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1232, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1232.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-473, March.
    2. Jeffrey E. Zabel, 1998. "An Analysis of Attrition in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Income and Program Participation with an Application to a Model of Labor Market Behavior," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 479-506.
    3. Mark B. Stewart & Joanna K. Swaffield, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
    4. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    6. Lee A. Lillard & Constantijn W. A. Panis, 1998. "Panel Attrition from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics: Household Income, Marital Status, and Mortality," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 437-457.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom, 1998. "Attrition in Panel Survey Data and the Estimation of Multi-State Labor Market Models," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 458-478.
    9. Becketti, Sean & Gould, William & Lillard, Lee & Welch, Finis, 1988. "The Panel Study of Income Dynamics after Fourteen Years: An Evaluatio n," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(4), pages 472-492, October.
    10. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert & Runkle, David, 1988. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1232-1266, December.
    11. James P. Ziliak & Thomas J. Kniesner, 1998. "The Importance of Sample Attrition in Life Cycle Labor Supply Estimation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 507-530.
    12. Mark B. Stewart, 2002. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low Pay," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B2-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    13. Schrapler, Jorg-Peter, 2003. "Respondent behaviour in panel studies: a case study for income-nonresponse by means of the British Household Panel Study (BHPS)," ISER Working Paper Series 2003-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2011. "Low-wage careers: Are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 43(3), pages 231-249.
    2. Burgess, Simon & Dickson, Matt & Propper, Carol & Aassve, Arnstein, 2005. "Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: an application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-26, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 648, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Kanabar, Ricky, 2017. "In or out? Poverty dynamics among older individuals in the UK," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 509-553, October.
    5. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    6. Mélise Jaud & Olivier Cadot & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann, 2013. "Do food scares explain supplier concentration? An analysis of EU agri-food imports," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(5), pages 873-890, December.
    7. Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: Which one provides better prospects for women?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Christoph Wunder & Regina T. Riphahn, 2014. "The dynamics of welfare entry and exit amongst natives and immigrants," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 580-604.
    9. Stephani, Jens, 2012. "Wage growth and career patterns of German low-wage workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201201, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Jones, Melanie K. & Jones, Richard J. & Murphy, Philip D. & Sloane, Peter J., 2007. "A Persistence Model of the National Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 2595, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Sanne Velthuis & Paul Sissons & Nigel Berkeley, 2019. "Do low-paid workers benefit from the urban escalator? Evidence from British cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(8), pages 1664-1680, June.
    12. Schnitzlein, Daniel D. & Stephani, Jens, 2016. "Locus of Control and low-wage mobility," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 164-177.
    13. Sara Ayllón, 2013. "Understanding poverty persistence in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-233, June.
    14. Mosthaf, Alexander & Schnabel, Claus & Stephani, Jens, 2011. "Low-wage careers: Are there dead-end firms and dead-end jobs?," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 43(3), pages 231-249.
    15. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    16. Yeosun Yoon & Heejung Chung, 2016. "New Forms of Dualization? Labour Market Segmentation Patterns in the UK from the Late 90s Until the Post-crisis in the Late 2000s," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 609-631, September.
    17. Aretz, Bodo & Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2012. "The Evolution of Wage Mobility in the German Low-Wage Sector - Is There Evidence for Increasing State Dependence?," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Stephani, Jens, 2013. "Does it matter where you work? : employer characteristics and the wage growth of low-wage workers and higher-wage workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201304, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shin, Jaeun & Moon, Sangho, 2006. "Fertility, relative wages, and labor market decisions: A case of female teachers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 591-604, December.
    2. Fertig, Michael & Schurer, Stefanie, 2007. "Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Germany – The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias," Ruhr Economic Papers 20, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Emre Ekinci, 2009. "Dealing with Attrition When Refreshment Samples are Available: An Application to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey," 2009 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Boudarbat, Brahim & Grenon, Lee, 2013. "Sample Attrition in the Canadian Survey of Labor and Income Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 7295, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Michael Fertig & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Earnings Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany: The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 30, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Mark L Bryan & Nigel Rice & Jennifer Roberts & Cristina Sechel, 2022. "Mental Health and Employment: A Bounding Approach Using Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1018-1051, October.
    7. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    8. Michael Fertig & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Germany – The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias," Ruhr Economic Papers 0020, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly: true or spurious?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-24, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0020 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Incomplete panels and selection bias : A survey," Discussion Paper 1992-7, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Stephen P. Jenkins & Lorenzo Cappellari & Peter Lynn & Annette Jäckle & Emanuela Sala, 2006. "Patterns of consent: evidence from a general household survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(4), pages 701-722, October.
    13. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Hong Il Yoo, 2020. "Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection, and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 552-568, July.
    14. Nicole Watson & Mark Wooden, 2011. "Re-engaging with Survey Non-respondents: The BHPS, SOEP and HILDA Survey Experience," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2004. "Modelling low income transitions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 593-610.
    16. Marcel Das & Vera Toepoel & Arthur van Soest, 2011. "Nonparametric Tests of Panel Conditioning and Attrition Bias in Panel Surveys," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 40(1), pages 32-56, February.
    17. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2007. "Earnings mobility among Italian low-paid workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 465-482, April.
    18. Lee, Myoung-jae & Cho, Myeong-hyeon, 2002. "Validity of LSE for trimmed and differenced panel data due to absorbing attrition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 251-256, January.
    19. Andrew M. Jones & Xander Koolman & Nigel Rice, 2006. "Health‐related non‐response in the British Household Panel Survey and European Community Household Panel: using inverse‐probability‐weighted estimators in non‐linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(3), pages 543-569, July.
    20. Martin Biewen, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are there Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 429, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Ghanem, Dalia & Hirshleifer, Sarojini & Kédagni, Désiré & Ortiz-Becerra, Karen, 2024. "Correcting attrition bias using changes-in-changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition probabilities; low pay; attrition; non-response; ignorability;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.