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The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries

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  • Anna Lipinska
Abstract
The EMU accession countries are obliged to fulfill the Maastricht convergence criteria prior to entering the EMU. What should be the optimal monetary policy satisfying these criteria? To answer this question, the paper proposes a DSGE model of a two-sector small open economy. First, I derive the micro founded loss function that represents the objective function of the optimal monetary policy not constrained to satisfy the criteria. I find that the optimal monetary policy should not only target inflation rates in the domestic sectors and aggregate output fluctuations but also domestic and international terms of trade. Second, I show how the loss function changes when the monetary policy is constrained to satisfy the Maastricht criteria. The loss function of such a constrained policy is characterized by additional elements penalizing fluctuations of the CPI inflation rate, the nominal interest rate and the nominal exchange rate around the new targets which are different from the steady state of the unconstrained optimal monetary policy. Under the chosen parameterization, the optimal monetary policy violates two criteria: concerning the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate. The constrained optimal policy is characterized by a deflationary bias. This results in targeting the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate that are 0.7% lower (in annual terms) than the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate in the countries taken as a reference. Such a policy leads to additional welfare costs amounting to 30% of the optimal monetary policy loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Lipinska, 2007. "The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0808, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0808
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lect. Anca Tănasie Ph.D, 2010. "A Brief Assesment Of The Monetary Situation In Romania During The Financial Crises And Facing The Euro Adoption," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(15S), pages 11-20, November.
    3. Hlavac, Marek, 2010. "Has EU Enlargement Been, and Will It Continue to Be, a Success? An Evaluation of EU Enlargement's Effects on Policies Pursued by Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 28075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kashiwagi, Masanori, 2017. "A vehicle currency country's welfare under optimal monetary policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 23-31.
    5. Okano, Eiji, 2014. "How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 266-286.
    6. Assoc. Prof. Anca Tãnasie Ph.D & Lect. Rãzvan Tudor Tãnasie PhD, 2011. "An Algorithm Based Approach For Romania’S Road Towards The Euro-Area Membership Status. In Search Of A Suitable Example," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 133-140, November.
    7. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2014. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-79.
    8. Robert Ambrisko, 2015. "A Small Open Economy with the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp547, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Sandu Carmen, 2009. "Possible Implications Of Adopting The Single European Currency For The Romanian Economy," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 328-335, May.
    10. Susanu, Monica, 2009. "Convergence to EMU through the Test of the Public Finance –Romania’s Budgetary Deficit and Public Debt," MPRA Paper 20480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; Maastricht convergence criteria; EMU accession countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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